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Game win probabilities

14 games · updated 29m ago

This is what the betting market thinks, with the bookmaker’s cut taken out. We take every sportsbook’s own two prices on a game, strip its margin , and publish the middle number across books. Then we rank the slate by how certain the favorite is.

It is not our forecast, and we are not claiming to beat it. We have no game-winner model. We built one for UFC and tested it against 2,680 real closing prices over six seasons: the market beat it in every single year. This number is our best available estimate precisely because the game market is efficient — there is no edge being sold here, and anyone telling you they can price a moneyline better than the market owes you the same test.

Useful for: seeing a whole week at a glance, filling in a confidence pool, and checking whether a price you were offered is roughly fair. Not useful for: finding a bet we think wins.

  1. 1WNBA
    FavoriteAtlanta Dream
    81.8%
    fair -450best -480 at Caesars
    UnderdogConnecticut Sun
    18.2%
    fair +450best +390 at FanDuel
    Thu, Aug 13, 11:00 PM17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  2. 2WNBA
    FavoriteNew York Liberty
    76.9%
    fair -333best -360 at DraftKings
    UnderdogLos Angeles Sparks
    23.1%
    fair +333best +300 at ESPN BET
    Fri, Aug 14, 12:00 AM18 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  3. 3WNBA
    FavoriteLas Vegas Aces
    69.0%
    fair -223best -225 at Caesars
    UnderdogWashington Mystics
    31.0%
    fair +223best +200 at Fanatics
    Fri, Aug 14, 2:00 AM17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  4. 4WNBA
    FavoriteIndiana Fever
    68.7%
    fair -219best -220 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogDallas Wings
    31.4%
    fair +219best +205 at Caesars
    Fri, Aug 14, 11:30 PM11 books priced both sides
  5. 5MLB
    FavoriteNew York Yankees
    60.1%
    fair -151best -140 at Hard Rock (OH)
    UnderdogSeattle Mariners
    39.9%
    fair +151best +147 at DraftKings
    Thu, Aug 13, 5:36 PM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  6. 6MLB
    FavoriteTexas Rangers
    58.9%
    fair -143best -147 at DraftKings
    UnderdogLos Angeles Angels
    41.1%
    fair +143best +143 at Caesars
    Fri, Aug 14, 2:08 AM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  7. 7MLB
    FavoriteChicago Cubs
    58.3%
    fair -140best -140 at Hard Rock
    UnderdogWashington Nationals
    41.7%
    fair +140best +136 at FanDuel
    Thu, Aug 13, 8:06 PM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  8. 8MLB
    FavoriteBoston Red Sox
    58.0%
    fair -138best -140 at FanDuel
    UnderdogToronto Blue Jays
    42.0%
    fair +138best +135 at DraftKings
    Thu, Aug 13, 7:08 PM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  9. 9MLB
    FavoriteLos Angeles Dodgers
    57.5%
    fair -135best -138 at FanDuel
    UnderdogMilwaukee Brewers
    42.5%
    fair +135best +131 at DraftKings
    Fri, Aug 14, 2:10 AM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  10. 10WNBA
    FavoriteSeattle Storm
    55.5%
    fair -125best -130 at Fanatics
    UnderdogPortland Fire
    44.5%
    fair +125best +115 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Aug 15, 2:00 AM11 books priced both sides
  11. 11MLB
    FavoriteChicago White Sox
    55.4%
    fair -124best -125 at Hard Rock (OH)
    UnderdogCincinnati Reds
    44.6%
    fair +124best +120 at Caesars
    Thu, Aug 13, 5:11 PM18 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  12. 12MLB
    FavoritePittsburgh Pirates
    53.5%
    fair -115best -119 at DraftKings
    UnderdogMiami Marlins
    46.5%
    fair +115best +116 at FanDuel
    Thu, Aug 13, 5:11 PM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  13. 13MLB
    FavoriteCleveland Guardians
    51.7%
    fair -107best -108 at FanDuel
    UnderdogDetroit Tigers
    48.3%
    fair +107best +105 at Caesars
    Thu, Aug 13, 5:11 PM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  14. 14MLB
    FavoriteMinnesota Twins
    50.0%
    fair +100best -104 at DraftKings
    UnderdogPhiladelphia Phillies
    50.0%
    fair +100best +100 at FanDuel
    Thu, Aug 13, 11:30 PM19 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)

Prices move. Always confirm the live number at your book before you act on anything here.

Games

Every upcoming game, by day, with our per-player projections. Tap a game to see every projected player; games we haven’t priced yet are listed too.

Today · Thu, Aug 13 · 13 games

MLB
CLE59-62@DET59-615:11 PM
Top StatIQ leansMax Clark O0.5 TB · proj 1.82Spencer Torkelson O0.5 TB · proj 1.71Keider Montero O3 K · proj 3.9
MLB
PIT58-64@MIA62-595:11 PM
Top StatIQ leansTyler Phillips U14.5 OUTS · proj 10.82Griffin Conine O0.5 TB · proj 2Braxton Ashcraft U17.5 OUTS · proj 15.54
MLB
CIN57-62@CHW62-575:11 PM
Top StatIQ leansEugenio Suarez O0.5 TB · proj 1.39Colson Montgomery O0.5 TB · proj 1.38JJ Bleday O0.5 TB · proj 1.32
MLB
SEA56-65@NYY68-525:36 PM
Top StatIQ leansMax Fried U17.5 OUTS · proj 15.13Josh Naylor O0.5 TB · proj 1.62Dominic Canzone O0.5 TB · proj 1.55
MLB
CIN57-62@CHW62-576:11 PM
Top StatIQ leansMunetaka Murakami U0.5 RBI · proj 0.5
MLB
BOS64-56@TOR59-637:08 PM
Top StatIQ leansPayton Tolle O5.5 K · proj 7.89Max Scherzer U15.5 OUTS · proj 11.88Max Scherzer U4.5 K · proj 3.24
MLB
CHC71-50@WSH59-638:06 PM
Top StatIQ leansNasim Nunez U1 HR · proj 0Jacob Young O0.5 TB · proj 1.5Ian Happ O0.5 TB · proj 1.45
WNBA
ATL20-12vsCON8-2311:00 PM
Top StatIQ leansJordin Canada U8.5 AST · proj 6.45Leila Lacan O11.5 PTS · proj 13.56Brittney Griner O12.5 PTS · proj 14.14
MLB
PHI64-58@MIN60-6211:30 PM
Top StatIQ leansRoyce Lewis O0.5 TB · proj 2.23Brooks Lee O0.5 TB · proj 1.59Luke Keaschall O0.5 TB · proj 1.36
WNBA
LA12-20vsNY20-1412:00 AM
Top StatIQ leansSabrina Ionescu U28.5 PRA · proj 23.24Sabrina Ionescu U5.5 AST · proj 4.07Rae Burrell U20.5 PRA · proj 17.8
WNBA
LV23-11vsWAS2:00 AM
Top StatIQ leansKiki Iriafen O14.5 PTS · proj 16.45Aja Wilson U25.5 PTS · proj 22.26Nalyssa Smith O18.5 PRA · proj 20.76
MLB
TEX60-61@LAA47-742:08 AM
Top StatIQ leansJacob DeGrom U17.5 OUTS · proj 14.75Ezequiel Duran O0.5 TB · proj 1.37Mike Trout O0.5 TB · proj 1.36
MLB
MIL74-47@LAD73-482:10 AM
Top StatIQ leansJake Bauers O0.5 TB · proj 1.91Shohei Ohtani O1.5 TB · proj 2.48Shane Drohan O4.5 K · proj 5.46

Tomorrow · Fri, Aug 14 · 14 games

MLB
STL61-60@CHC71-506:20 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
MIA62-59@CIN57-6210:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
BOS64-56@PIT58-6410:40 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
CHW62-57@DET59-6110:40 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
WSH59-63@NYM53-6911:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
SD65-57@CLE59-6211:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
BAL58-63@TB74-4611:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
ARI64-58@ATL73-4811:15 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
NYY68-52@TOR59-6311:15 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
SEA56-65@HOU62-6012:10 AM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
KC49-73@LAA47-741:38 AM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
TEX60-61@ATH47-741:40 AM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
MIL74-47@LAD73-482:10 AM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
COL48-73@SF50-712:15 AM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

Sat, Aug 15 · 15 games

MLB
CHW62-57@DET59-615:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
STL61-60@CHC71-506:20 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
NYY68-52@TOR59-637:07 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
COL48-73@SF50-718:05 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
WSH59-63@NYM53-698:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
BAL58-63@TB74-4610:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
MIA62-59@CIN57-6210:40 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
SD65-57@CLE59-6211:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
SEA56-65@HOU62-6011:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
PHI64-58@MIN60-6211:10 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
BOS64-56@PIT58-6411:15 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
ARI64-58@ATL73-4811:15 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
MIL74-47@LAD73-4811:15 PM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
KC49-73@LAA47-741:38 AM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.

MLB
TEX60-61@ATH47-741:40 AM

Not projected yet — player props for this game haven’t posted. It’ll fill in automatically once the books put lines up.