Daniel Jones passing yards projection vs the line

IND · QB · #17

Next game vs DAL · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

207.2StatIQ projection · passing yards

203.5Line · consensus

+3.7Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	207.2	203.5	+3.7
Passing Touchdowns	1.1	1.5	−0.3

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

180.3Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 203.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

201

Nov 30

Dec 7

166

Sep 13

210

Sep 20

235

Sep 27

143

Oct 4

267

Oct 11

269

Oct 18

108

Oct 25

144

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026at JAX	144	1
Oct 25, 2026at MIN	108	0
Oct 18, 2026vs TEN	269	1
Oct 11, 2026at PIT	267	0
Oct 4, 2026vs WSH	143	0
Sep 27, 2026vs HOU	235	1
Sep 20, 2026at KC	210	1
Sep 13, 2026vs BAL	166	1
Dec 7, 2025at JAX	60	0
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU	201	2
Average · last 10 games	180.3	0.7

Daniel Jones’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Daniel Jones has averaged 186.2 yards over his last 5 games and 192.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Daniel Jones’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+3.7 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Daniel Jones’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs IND

Opponent: DAL
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: DAL allowed the 1st-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 265.9 yards/game · 1st of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Daniel Jones

Passing Yards · line 203.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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