Tyler Shough passing yards projection vs the line

NO · QB · #6

Next game vs CLE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

188.2StatIQ projection · passing yards

225.5Line · consensus

−37.3Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	188.2	225.5	−37.3
Passing Touchdowns	1.1	1.5	−0.4

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

262.1Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 225.5 in 8 of 10 · past results, not odds

308

Dec 21

333

Dec 28

259

Jan 4

410

Sep 13

252

Sep 20

255

Sep 27

286

Oct 5

Oct 11

144

Oct 18

278

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Oct 25, 2026vs PIT	278	1
Oct 18, 2026at NYG	144	3
Oct 11, 2026vs MIN	96	0
Oct 5, 2026vs ATL	286	1
Sep 27, 2026vs LV	255	4
Sep 20, 2026at BAL	252	1
Sep 13, 2026at DET	410	3
Jan 4, 2026at ATL	259	1
Dec 28, 2025at TEN	333	2
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ	308	1
Average · last 10 games	262.1	1.7

Tyler Shough’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Tyler Shough has averaged 211.8 yards over his last 5 games and 245.9 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Tyler Shough’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−37.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Tyler Shough’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CLE vs NO

Opponent: CLE
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CLE allowed the 30th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 187.5 yards/game · 30th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Tyler Shough

Passing Yards · line 225.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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