StatIQ

Today

our best plays across every league · 24 tracked · 12 high-confidence (NBA)

real 2025-26 form · sample matchups until the live slate
Kon Knueppel
Kon KnueppelNBA
CHA vs ORL · pra
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 26.5 praStrong lean
  • L10 19.5 on 31 min · minutes stable (±2.8); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed under in 5 of the last 5.

pra can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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Marcus Smart
Marcus SmartNBA
LAL vs OKC · assists
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 3 assistsStrong lean
  • L10 5.1 on 34 min · minutes stable (±2.4); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed over in 4 of the last 5.

assists can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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Jerry Jeudy
Jerry JeudyNFL
WR · Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 35.4 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 70.2 vs season baseline 35.4 (+98.3%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

70.2projection
35.4line
OVER · -110our side · best price
42band (variance) 98
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Our model leans OVER at 89% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Josh Downs
Josh DownsNFL
WR · Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 35.4 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 57.6 vs season baseline 35.4 (+62.7%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

57.6projection
35.4line
OVER · -110our side · best price
35band (variance) 81
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Our model leans OVER at 83% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Keon Coleman
Keon ColemanNFL
WR · Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 33.7 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 54.4 vs season baseline 33.7 (+61.5%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

54.4projection
33.7line
OVER · -110our side · best price
33band (variance) 76
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Our model leans OVER at 83% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

James Cook
James CookNFL
RB · Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens · RUSH YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 95.4 RUSH YDSStrong lean

projection 38.6 vs season baseline 95.4 (-59.6%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

38.6projection
95.4line
UNDER · -110our side · best price
15band (variance) 62
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Our model leans UNDER at 99% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Mike Evans
Mike EvansNFL
WR · San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 46 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 71.1 vs season baseline 46.0 (+54.6%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

71.1projection
46line
OVER · -110our side · best price
43band (variance) 100
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Our model leans OVER at 81% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

DJ Moore
DJ MooreNFL
WR · Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 40.1 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 61.7 vs season baseline 40.1 (+53.8%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

61.7projection
40.1line
OVER · -110our side · best price
37band (variance) 86
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Our model leans OVER at 81% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Drake Maye
Drake MayeNFL
QB · New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders · PASS YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 258.5 PASS YDSStrong lean

projection 122.8 vs season baseline 258.5 (-52.5%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

122.8projection
258.5line
UNDER · -110our side · best price
58band (variance) 187
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Our model leans UNDER at 98% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Ladd McConkey
Ladd McConkeyNFL
WR · Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 49.3 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 74.8 vs season baseline 49.3 (+51.8%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

74.8projection
49.3line
OVER · -110our side · best price
45band (variance) 105
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Our model leans OVER at 80% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Jaylen Warren
Jaylen WarrenNFL
RB · Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · RUSH YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 59.9 RUSH YDSStrong lean

projection 29.2 vs season baseline 59.9 (-51.3%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

29.2projection
59.9line
UNDER · -110our side · best price
14band (variance) 44
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Our model leans UNDER at 98% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Luther Burden III
Luther Burden IIINFL
WR · Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 43.5 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 22.1 vs season baseline 43.5 (-49.2%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

22.1projection
43.5line
UNDER · -110our side · best price
11band (variance) 33
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Our model leans UNDER at 98% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Travis Etienne
Travis EtienneNFL
RB · New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · RUSH YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 65.1 RUSH YDSStrong lean

projection 33.8 vs season baseline 65.1 (-48.0%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

33.8projection
65.1line
UNDER · -110our side · best price
18band (variance) 50
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Our model leans UNDER at 97% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Mack Hollins
Mack HollinsNFL
WR · New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders · REC YDS
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 39.3 REC YDSStrong lean

projection 20.9 vs season baseline 39.3 (-46.8%); line = season baseline (no book line yet).

20.9projection
39.3line
UNDER · -110our side · best price
11band (variance) 31
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Our model leans UNDER at 97% — projection-quality, no book line yet.

Brandon Miller
Brandon MillerNBA
CHA vs ORL · pra
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 28 praStrong lean
  • L10 24.6 on 31 min · minutes stable (±2.8); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed under in 4 of the last 5.

pra can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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Ace Bailey
Ace BaileyNBA
UTA vs LAL · pra
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 20 praStrong lean
  • L10 25.7 on 32 min · minutes stable (±2.7); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed over in 3 of the last 5.

pra can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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Collin Sexton
Collin SextonNBA
CHI vs DAL · assists
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 3.5 assistsStrong lean
  • L10 2.8 on 29 min · minutes stable (±2.3); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed under in 3 of the last 5.

assists can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

Add to slip
Zion Williamson
Zion WilliamsonNBA
NOP vs ORL · assists
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 3.5 assistsStrong lean
  • L10 2.8 on 30 min · minutes stable (±2.6); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed under in 4 of the last 5.

assists can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

Add to slip
Cade Cunningham
Cade CunninghamNBA
DET vs CLE · points
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 24 pointsStrong lean
  • L10 27.6 on 41 min · minutes stable (±3.0); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed over in 2 of the last 5.

points can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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Evan Mobley
Evan MobleyNBA
CLE vs NYK · rebounds
high · our call
StatIQ Lean UNDER 8.5 reboundsStrong lean
  • L10 7.6 on 37 min · minutes stable (±2.6); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed under in 3 of the last 5.

rebounds can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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Paolo Banchero
Paolo BancheroNBA
ORL vs DET · points
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 22 pointsStrong lean
  • L10 25.0 on 38 min · minutes stable (±2.8); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed over in 3 of the last 5.

points can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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LeBron James
LeBron JamesNBA
LAL vs OKC · rebounds
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 6 reboundsStrong lean
  • L10 6.7 on 38 min · minutes stable (±2.9); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed over in 3 of the last 5.

rebounds can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

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Dejounte Murray
Dejounte MurrayNBA
NOP vs POR · rebounds
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 5.5 reboundsStrong lean
  • L10 5.7 on 29 min · minutes stable (±2.1); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed over in 2 of the last 5.

rebounds can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

Add to slip
Devin Booker
Devin BookerNBA
PHX vs OKC · points
high · our call
StatIQ Lean OVER 24.5 pointsStrong lean
  • L10 24.7 on 38 min · minutes stable (±2.6); line = season baseline (no book line yet).
  • Landed over in 0 of the last 5.

points can swing on minutes and role — size it as a high-confidence lean.

Add to slip

Players in question tonight? See Injury Watch →

Projections come from a real model with honest variance bands. Built on 2025-26 form; lines are the season baseline and matchups are samples until the live odds + slate are wired. Every pick is logged before tip and graded in the open — wins and losses.