104 WNBA positions · every one priced and logged before tip · no ROI claims
DetailAdds the projection, the calibrated chance, the band and the history.
WNBA tracked record · since 2026-07-02
123–115
WNBA tracked positions · 239 graded
51.7%
Hit rate
+1.86%
ROI · flat 1u
1015–945
All model leans
−1.83%
Leans ROI
29–23
At-Kalshi arm
Every position is logged at a price before the game starts and graded in the open — wins and losses, never deleted. WNBA is ahead right now at +1.86% over 239 graded positions. That is a result, not a claim. ROI needs something like 4,000 positions before it means much, so we publish it exactly the way we publish the number that is behind. Rates are only shown once a sample passes n=20.
Window: Every StatIQ play is projected with a real model, taken at the best available price, and logged before tip — then graded in the open: wins and losses, never deleted. Judge us by the live record. (Started 2026-07-02, mid-season; no ROI is claimed.) This strip covers WNBA only — no other sport’s positions are in it, and no figure here is combined with any other sport’s.
104 tracked WNBA positions tonight · 44 watching — not priced, not in the record
Sorted by tip / first pitch. Nothing about this order implies quality.
Live
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Assists
Watching · no price taken
Over 2.5assists
Slight lean · our side of the market
+110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.65
0model band 1.6–3.7 · last 15 games5
45.5%
Our chance?
2.65
Projection?
±1.1
68% band
6/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.65 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.15 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.5%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 18.45 points against a line of 18.5 — 0.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.6%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.22%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.6 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.3
Opened
18.5 -114
All 7 books · our side
Novig+104
Hard Rock Bet-110
Caesars-112
DraftKings-113
betPARX-117
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Over 24.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-111at DraftKingsline 23.5 → 24.5
LINE 24.5
over pays →
proj 25.3
0model band 9.1–41.4 · last 15 games44
48.1%
Our chance?
25.27
Projection?
±16.2
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 25.27 pts+reb+ast against a line of 24.5 — 0.77 to the over side, inside a band of ±16.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.1%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.1% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Strong lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.39 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.89 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 62.1%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.56 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 49.0%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−10.18%
Break-even
54.5%
Edge vs BE
−5.5 pts
Kalshi ask
56¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.3
Opened
1.5 -137
All 9 books · our side
Novig-120
kalshi-122
Hard Rock Bet-135
BetRivers-136
betPARX-136
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Assists
Price locked 8:10AM
Under 2.5assists
Solid lean · our side of the market
-136at FanDuel
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.16
0model band 0.3–4.0 · last 15 games4
59.1%
Our chance?
2.16
Projection?
±1.8
68% band
10/15
Landed under · history
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.16 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.1%.Risk: assumes 31.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 17.81 points against a line of 16.5 — 1.31 to the over side, inside a band of ±65.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.8%.Risk: assumes 31.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 31.78 pts+reb+ast against a line of 31.5 — 0.28 to the over side, inside a band of ±8.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.7%.Risk: assumes 31.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 11.69 rebounds against a line of 12.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±23.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.4%.Risk: assumes 31.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 14.14 points against a line of 12.5 — 1.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±54.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.2%.Risk: assumes 25.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.70%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
−1.4 pts
Books priced
8
Minutes
25.8
Opened
11.5 -119
All 8 books · our side
Novig-111
DraftKings-114
Hard Rock Bet-115
FanDuel-118
ESPN BET-120
CON vs ATL/ 7:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Over 20.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-125at FanDuelline 19.5 → 20.5
LINE 20.5
over pays →
proj 23.1
0model band 0.0–49.1 · last 15 games53
53.9%
Our chance?
23.05
Projection?
±26.0
68% band
9/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 23.05 pts+reb+ast against a line of 20.5 — 2.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±26.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.9%.Risk: assumes 25.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 5.79 rebounds against a line of 5.5 — 0.29 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.9%.Risk: assumes 25.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.02%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
−1.0 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
25.8
Opened
5.5 -120
All 9 books · our side
Novig-108
Caesars-125
kalshi-127
ESPN BET-130
FanDuel-132
CON vs ATL/ 7:00PM ET/ Points
Watching · no price taken
Over 9.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
-104at Novig
LINE 9.5
over pays →
proj 9.6
0model band 5.9–13.3 · last 15 games15
46.5%
Our chance?
9.63
Projection?
±3.7
68% band
6/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 9.63 points against a line of 9.5 — 0.13 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.5%.Risk: assumes 24 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.5%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−8.78%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
−4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
24
Opened
9.5 -125
All 8 books · our side
Novig-104
FanDuel-108
kalshi-108
ESPN BET-115
DraftKings-117
CON vs ATL/ 7:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Price locked 7:00AM
Over 2.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
+143at BetRivers
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.77
0model band 1.0–4.5 · last 15 games8
43.8%
Our chance?
2.77
Projection?
±1.7
68% band
9/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.77 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 43.8%.Risk: assumes 24 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 43.8%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.37%
Break-even
41.2%
Edge vs BE
+2.6 pts
Books priced
2
Minutes
24
Opened
2.5 -147
All 2 books · our side
DraftKings+126
Novig+122
CON vs ATL/ 7:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Price locked 2:06PM
Under 1.53-pointers made
Strong lean · our side of the market
-190at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.82
0model band 0.0–2.1 · last 15 games3
69.6%
Our chance?
0.82
Projection?
±1.3
68% band
11/15
Landed under · history
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 0.82 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.68 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 69.6%.Risk: assumes 24 minutes.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 6.45 assists against a line of 8.5 — 2.05 to the under side, inside a band of ±11.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.0%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.21%
Break-even
57.3%
Edge vs BE
+0.7 pts
Kalshi ask
57¢
Books priced
5
Minutes
32.1
Opened
8.5 -130
All 6 books · our side
DraftKings-125
Novig-127
kalshi-133
Caesars-134
ESPN BET-135
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Points
Watching · no price taken
Over 11.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
+100at Novig
LINE 11.5
over pays →
proj 12.7
0model band 0.0–28.3 · last 15 games30
47.0%
Our chance?
12.66
Projection?
±15.7
68% band
6/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 12.66 points against a line of 11.5 — 1.16 to the over side, inside a band of ±15.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.0%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.03%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.0 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.1
Opened
11.5 -108
All 7 books · our side
Novig+100
ESPN BET-105
FanDuel-106
Caesars-109
DraftKings-113
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Price locked 7:00AM
Over 23.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
+111at Novig
LINE 23.5
over pays →
proj 24.3
0model band 10.4–38.2 · last 15 games41
46.9%
Our chance?
24.31
Projection?
±13.9
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 24.31 pts+reb+ast against a line of 23.5 — 0.81 to the over side, inside a band of ±13.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 46.9%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
−1.03%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
−0.5 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
32.1
Opened
23.5 -104
All 5 books · our side
Novig-106
FanDuel-108
BetRivers-114
betPARX-114
DraftKings-119
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Price locked 7:00AM
Over 3.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
+128at FanDuel
LINE 3.5
over pays →
proj 3.8
0model band 1.9–5.6 · last 15 games10
45.2%
Our chance?
3.76
Projection?
±1.8
68% band
8/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.76 rebounds against a line of 3.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.2%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 4.40 assists against a line of 4.5 — 0.10 to the under side, inside a band of ±0.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.7%.Risk: assumes 30.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.16%
Break-even
60.0%
Edge vs BE
−4.3 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
30.7
Opened
4.5 -155
All 8 books · our side
Novig-150
DraftKings-152
Caesars-159
FanDuel-160
ESPN BET-160
CON vs ATL/ 7:00PM ET/ Points
Price locked 8:00AM
Over 11.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
-120at ESPN BET
LINE 11.5
over pays →
proj 13.6
0model band 0.0–41.7 · last 15 games45
54.6%
Our chance?
13.56
Projection?
±28.1
68% band
9/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 13.56 points against a line of 11.5 — 2.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±28.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.6%.Risk: assumes 30.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 20.92 pts+reb+ast against a line of 18.5 — 2.42 to the over side, inside a band of ±43.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.2%.Risk: assumes 30.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.74%
Break-even
54.8%
Edge vs BE
−2.6 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
30.7
Opened
17.5 -128
All 5 books · our side
BetRivers-121
betPARX-121
Novig-127
FanDuel-130
DraftKings-130
CON vs ATL/ 7:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Watching · no price taken
Over 2.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
+141at Novig
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.98
0model band 1.2–4.7 · last 15 games7
41.4%
Our chance?
2.98
Projection?
±1.8
68% band
6/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.98 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.48 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.4%.Risk: assumes 30.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−0.27%
Break-even
41.5%
Edge vs BE
−0.1 pts
Books priced
4
Minutes
30.7
All 4 books · our side
Novig+141
Hard Rock Bet+130
BetRivers+130
betPARX+130
CON vs ATL/ 7:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Price locked 2:06PM
Under 1.53-pointers made
Strong lean · our side of the market
-227at DraftKings
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 0.69
0model band 0.0–2.1 · last 15 games2
72.4%
Our chance?
0.69
Projection?
±1.4
68% band
11/15
Landed under · history
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 0.69 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.81 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.4. That is a modest separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 72.4%.Risk: assumes 30.7 minutes.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 8.77 points against a line of 8.5 — 0.27 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.6%.Risk: assumes 27.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−4.21%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.9 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
27.2
Opened
8.5 +102
All 7 books · our side
Novig+115
FanDuel+104
DraftKings+104
Hard Rock Bet+100
Caesars+100
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Watching · no price taken
Over 3.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
-130at Novig
LINE 3.5
over pays →
proj 3.7
0model band 1.2–6.1 · last 15 games9
52.5%
Our chance?
3.68
Projection?
±2.4
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.68 rebounds against a line of 3.5 — 0.18 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 52.5%.Risk: assumes 27.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−7.20%
Break-even
56.5%
Edge vs BE
−4.0 pts
Books priced
8
Minutes
27.2
Opened
3.5 -132
All 8 books · our side
Novig-130
DraftKings-136
Caesars-137
Hard Rock Bet-145
BetRivers-148
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Assists
Watching · no price taken
Over 3.5assists
Slight lean · our side of the market
-108at kalshi
LINE 3.5
over pays →
proj 3.5
0model band 1.5–5.6 · last 15 games9
48.7%
Our chance?
3.53
Projection?
±2.0
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.53 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.03 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.7%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 17.37 points against a line of 17.5 — 0.13 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.0%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 24.20 pts+reb+ast against a line of 24.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.1%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
+0.90%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+0.5 pts
Books priced
3
Minutes
32.1
Opened
25.5 -110
All 3 books · our side
Novig-111
FanDuel-112
DraftKings-122
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Watching · no price taken
Over 3.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
-125at Novig
LINE 3.5
over pays →
proj 3.7
0model band 1.8–5.6 · last 15 games7
54.4%
Our chance?
3.68
Projection?
±1.9
68% band
9/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.68 rebounds against a line of 3.5 — 0.18 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.4%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−2.01%
Break-even
55.6%
Edge vs BE
−1.2 pts
Kalshi ask
55¢
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.1
Opened
3.5 -121
All 8 books · our side
Novig-125
DraftKings-128
Caesars-132
FanDuel-144
Hard Rock Bet-145
ATL vs CON/ 7:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Price locked 2:06PM
Under 3.53-pointers made
Solid lean · our side of the market
-120at ESPN BET
LINE 3.5
← under pays
proj 2.36
0model band 0.0–7.9 · last 15 games9
58.2%
Our chance?
2.36
Projection?
±5.5
68% band
8/15
Landed under · history
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.36 3-pointers made against a line of 3.5 — 1.14 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.2%.Risk: assumes 32.1 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.09 assists against a line of 2 — 0.09 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.0%.Risk: assumes 25.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+16.06%
Break-even
40.5%
Edge vs BE
+6.5 pts
Books priced
3
Minutes
25.8
Opened
2.5 +153
All 3 books · our side
Hard Rock Bet-175
BetRivers-177
betPARX-177
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Assists
Price locked 8:30AM
Over 2.5assists
Solid lean · our side of the market
-129at DraftKings
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.53
0model band 2.0–3.0 · last 15 games7
56.6%
Our chance?
2.53
Projection?
±0.5
68% band
10/15
Landed over · history
Solid lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.53 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.03 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 56.6%.Risk: assumes 25 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.6%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 9.10 points against a line of 9.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: assumes 25 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.93%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.5 pts
Kalshi ask
40¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
25
Opened
9.5 +100
All 7 books · our side
FanDuel-106
Novig-108
DraftKings-113
Caesars-113
kalshi-117
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Price locked 8:35AM
Under 15.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
+111at Novig
LINE 15.5
← under pays
proj 13.9
0model band 7.7–20.2 · last 15 games28
50.7%
Our chance?
13.94
Projection?
±6.2
68% band
6/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 13.94 pts+reb+ast against a line of 15.5 — 1.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: assumes 25 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 59.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+7.02%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+3.3 pts
Books priced
4
Minutes
25
Opened
15.5 -114
All 4 books · our side
Novig-102
FanDuel-106
DraftKings-115
betPARX-118
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Watching · no price taken
Over 2.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
-136at DraftKings
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.62
0model band 1.2–4.1 · last 15 games7
53.4%
Our chance?
2.62
Projection?
±1.5
68% band
8/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.62 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.12 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.4%.Risk: assumes 25 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.04 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.8%.Risk: assumes 25 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.01 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.49 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: assumes 31.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.88%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
−2.3 pts
Kalshi ask
65¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
31.6
Opened
3.5 -150
All 8 books · our side
Novig-144
ESPN BET-150
FanDuel-154
Caesars-154
DraftKings-155
NY vs LA/ 8:00PM ET/ Points
Price locked 8:00AM
Under 22.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
+100at Novig
LINE 22.5
← under pays
proj 21.9
0model band 14.7–29.2 · last 15 games39
52.4%
Our chance?
21.94
Projection?
±7.2
68% band
9/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 21.94 points against a line of 22.5 — 0.56 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.4%.Risk: assumes 31.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+4.75%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
31.6
Opened
22.5 -110
All 6 books · our side
Novig+102
DraftKings-108
FanDuel-108
Caesars-109
betPARX-112
NY vs LA/ 8:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Under 34.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-113at DraftKings
LINE 34.5
← under pays
proj 32.5
0model band 14.8–50.2 · last 15 games54
53.5%
Our chance?
32.49
Projection?
±17.7
68% band
9/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 32.49 pts+reb+ast against a line of 34.5 — 2.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±17.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.5%.Risk: assumes 31.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 7.68 rebounds against a line of 8 — 0.32 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.3%.Risk: assumes 31.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+9.72%
Break-even
44.1%
Edge vs BE
+4.2 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Books priced
4
Minutes
31.6
Opened
7.5 -140
All 4 books · our side
DraftKings-140
ESPN BET-150
betPARX-150
Hard Rock Bet-150
NY vs LA/ 8:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Watching · no price taken
Over 0.53-pointers made
Solid lean · our side of the market
-170at kalshi
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.69
0model band 0.0–1.5 · last 15 games2
58.6%
Our chance?
0.69
Projection?
±0.8
68% band
8/15
Landed over · history
Solid lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 0.69 3-pointers made against a line of 0.5 — 0.19 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 58.6%.Risk: assumes 31.6 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.10 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.40 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 58.2%.Risk: assumes 26.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 14.10 points against a line of 13.5 — 0.60 to the over side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.4%.Risk: assumes 26.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.4% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 24.30 pts+reb+ast against a line of 23.5 — 0.80 to the over side, inside a band of ±13.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.0%.Risk: assumes 26.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.0% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−9.23%
Break-even
52.8%
Edge vs BE
−4.8 pts
Books priced
5
Minutes
26.7
Opened
23.5 -114
All 5 books · our side
BetRivers-112
betPARX-112
DraftKings-114
Novig-120
FanDuel-125
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Watching · no price taken
Under 7.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
-140at ESPN BETline 7 → 7.5
LINE 7.5
← under pays
proj 6.6
0model band 0.8–12.4 · last 15 games13
56.2%
Our chance?
6.59
Projection?
±5.8
68% band
7/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 6.59 rebounds against a line of 7.5 — 0.91 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.2%.Risk: assumes 26.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 4.32 assists against a line of 5.5 — 1.18 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.9%.Risk: assumes 25.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+9.63%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+5.0 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
25.7
Opened
5.5 -114
All 7 books · our side
Novig+130
Caesars+110
FanDuel+108
DraftKings+101
ESPN BET+100
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Points
Price locked 10:00AM
Under 9.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
+105at ProphetXline 8.5 → 9.5
LINE 9.5
← under pays
proj 9.1
0model band 3.1–15.1 · last 15 games22
52.6%
Our chance?
9.11
Projection?
±6.0
68% band
8/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 9.11 points against a line of 9.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.6%.Risk: assumes 25.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 15.77 pts+reb+ast against a line of 16.5 — 0.73 to the under side, inside a band of ±13.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.1%.Risk: assumes 25.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+0.43%
Break-even
51.9%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Books priced
2
Minutes
25.7
Opened
16.5 -110
All 2 books · our side
DraftKings-110
betPARX-122
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Watching · no price taken
Under 2.5rebounds
Strong lean · our side of the market
-190at betPARX
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.14
0model band 1.0–3.3 · last 15 games4
63.0%
Our chance?
2.14
Projection?
±1.1
68% band
10/15
Landed under · history
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.14 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 63.0%.Risk: assumes 25.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.91%
Break-even
65.5%
Edge vs BE
−2.5 pts
Books priced
2
Minutes
25.7
Opened
2.5 -182
All 2 books · our side
betPARX-190
Hard Rock Bet-190
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Price locked 2:06PM
Under 1.53-pointers made
Strong lean · our side of the market
-165at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.17
0model band 0.1–2.2 · last 15 games3
62.5%
Our chance?
1.17
Projection?
±1.0
68% band
9/15
Landed under · history
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.17 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.33 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: assumes 25.7 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.52 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.02 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 51.4%.Risk: assumes 29 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 14.23 points against a line of 14.5 — 0.27 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.7%.Risk: assumes 29 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 26.60 pts+reb+ast against a line of 26.5 — 0.10 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.4%.Risk: assumes 29 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 8.81 rebounds against a line of 9.5 — 0.69 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.4%.Risk: assumes 29 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.76 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 54.2%.Risk: assumes 29 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.53 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.97 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.8%.Risk: assumes 27.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.73%
Break-even
59.2%
Edge vs BE
+1.6 pts
Kalshi ask
64¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
27.4
Opened
3.5 -150
All 8 books · our side
Novig-144
ESPN BET-150
DraftKings-151
Caesars-152
FanDuel-154
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Points
Price locked 12:00PM
Under 16.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
+111at Novig
LINE 16.5
← under pays
proj 16.1
0model band 9.0–23.1 · last 15 games27
47.4%
Our chance?
16.09
Projection?
±7.0
68% band
5/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 16.09 points against a line of 16.5 — 0.41 to the under side, inside a band of ±7.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 47.4%.Risk: assumes 27.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.4%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.07%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
0.0 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
27.4
Opened
16.5 -110
All 7 books · our side
Novig+104
DraftKings-108
FanDuel-108
Caesars-108
ESPN BET-110
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Under 28.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-109at DraftKings
LINE 28.5
← under pays
proj 26.3
0model band 0.0–104.7 · last 15 games112
48.9%
Our chance?
26.34
Projection?
±78.3
68% band
5/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 26.34 pts+reb+ast against a line of 28.5 — 2.16 to the under side, inside a band of ±78.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 48.9%.Risk: assumes 27.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 7.76 rebounds against a line of 8.5 — 0.74 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.8%.Risk: assumes 27.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 61.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.11 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.39 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.3%.Risk: assumes 27.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.24%
Break-even
59.0%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Kalshi ask
63¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
27.4
Opened
1.5 -160
All 8 books · our side
Novig-167
FanDuel-168
ESPN BET-170
Caesars-170
DraftKings-171
NY vs LA/ 8:00PM ET/ Assists
Watching · no price taken
Over 2.5assists
Slight lean · our side of the market
-127at kalshi
LINE 2.5
over pays →
proj 2.64
0model band 1.3–3.9 · last 15 games7
53.1%
Our chance?
2.64
Projection?
±1.3
68% band
8/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.64 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.1%.Risk: assumes 22 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 7.66 points against a line of 7.5 — 0.16 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.8%.Risk: assumes 22 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 51.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.87%
Break-even
52.4%
Edge vs BE
−3.6 pts
Books priced
6
Minutes
22
Opened
7.5 -114
All 6 books · our side
BetRivers-110
betPARX-110
Novig-111
Caesars-117
DraftKings-120
NY vs LA/ 8:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Over 12.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
—at —
LINE 12.5
over pays →
proj 14.1
0model band 8.2–20.1 · last 15 games28
50.2%
Our chance?
14.14
Projection?
±6.0
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 14.14 pts+reb+ast against a line of 12.5 — 1.64 to the over side, inside a band of ±6.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.2%.Risk: assumes 22 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Books priced
0
Minutes
22
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Assists
Price locked 8:00AM
Under 2.5assists
Solid lean · our side of the market
-111at Novig
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.20
0model band 0.0–4.6 · last 15 games5
53.7%
Our chance?
2.20
Projection?
±2.4
68% band
7/15
Landed under · history
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.20 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.30 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.7%.Risk: assumes 26.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+2.07%
Break-even
52.6%
Edge vs BE
+1.1 pts
Books priced
4
Minutes
26.5
Opened
2.5 -137
All 4 books · our side
Novig-104
DraftKings-115
Hard Rock Bet-130
betPARX-132
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Points
Price locked 9:40AM
Under 15.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
+100at Novig
LINE 15.5
← under pays
proj 13.8
0model band 8.1–19.4 · last 15 games26
50.2%
Our chance?
13.76
Projection?
±5.7
68% band
6/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 13.76 points against a line of 15.5 — 1.74 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.2%.Risk: assumes 26.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 62.1%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.2% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+0.30%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+0.2 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
26.5
Opened
15.5 -109
All 7 books · our side
Novig+106
FanDuel-110
DraftKings-111
Caesars-113
ESPN BET-120
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Price locked 9:25AM
Under 20.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
+111at Novig
LINE 20.5
← under pays
proj 17.8
0model band 10.9–24.7 · last 15 games32
50.3%
Our chance?
17.80
Projection?
±6.9
68% band
6/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 17.80 pts+reb+ast against a line of 20.5 — 2.70 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 50.3%.Risk: assumes 26.5 minutes.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 65.2%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+6.05%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+2.9 pts
Books priced
2
Minutes
26.5
Opened
20.5 -112
All 2 books · our side
DraftKings-106
betPARX-121
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Price locked 8:00AM
Under 2.5rebounds
Solid lean · our side of the market
-127at Novig
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.31
0model band 1.1–3.5 · last 15 games4
56.9%
Our chance?
2.31
Projection?
±1.2
68% band
9/15
Landed under · history
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.31 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.19 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.9%.Risk: assumes 26.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.62%
Break-even
55.9%
Edge vs BE
+1.0 pts
Books priced
4
Minutes
26.5
Opened
2.5 -130
All 4 books · our side
Novig-125
Hard Rock Bet-140
betPARX-141
DraftKings-142
LA vs NY/ 8:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Price locked 2:06PM
Under 1.53-pointers made
Slight lean · our side of the market
+135at ESPN BET
LINE 1.5
← under pays
proj 1.04
0model band 0.0–6.7 · last 15 games7
46.8%
Our chance?
1.04
Projection?
±5.6
68% band
6/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.04 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.46 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 46.8%.Risk: assumes 26.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 46.8% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 4.07 assists against a line of 5.5 — 1.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.8%.Risk: assumes 29.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 16.25 points against a line of 18.5 — 2.25 to the under side, inside a band of ±14.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 55.7%.Risk: assumes 29.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 23.24 pts+reb+ast against a line of 28.5 — 5.26 to the under side, inside a band of ±28.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: assumes 29.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.49 rebounds against a line of 4.5 — 1.01 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 60.9%.Risk: assumes 29.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.99 3-pointers made against a line of 2.5 — 0.51 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.4%.Risk: assumes 29.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.59 assists against a line of 3.5 — 0.91 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 62.5%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+7.71%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
+4.5 pts
Kalshi ask
53¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.5
Opened
3.5 -135
All 8 books · our side
DraftKings-141
ESPN BET-150
Caesars-150
Novig-156
FanDuel-158
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ Points
Price locked 12:25PM
Under 25.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
-114at DraftKings
LINE 25.5
← under pays
proj 22.3
0model band 0.0–55.1 · last 15 games59
54.3%
Our chance?
22.26
Projection?
±32.8
68% band
8/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 22.26 points against a line of 25.5 — 3.24 to the under side, inside a band of ±32.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.3%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 34.07 pts+reb+ast against a line of 38.5 — 4.43 to the under side, inside a band of ±47.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.5%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 9.43 rebounds against a line of 9.5 — 0.07 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.3%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.11%
Break-even
46.9%
Edge vs BE
+2.4 pts
Kalshi ask
52¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.5
Opened
9.5 -105
All 8 books · our side
Novig+113
DraftKings-109
ESPN BET-110
Caesars-110
FanDuel-112
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Watching · no price taken
Over 0.53-pointers made
Strong lean · our side of the market
-212at Novigline 1.5 → 0.5
LINE 0.5
over pays →
proj 0.56
0model band 0.3–0.8 · last 15 games3
60.1%
Our chance?
0.56
Projection?
±0.2
68% band
8/15
Landed over · history
Strong lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 0.56 3-pointers made against a line of 0.5 — 0.06 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 60.1%.Risk: assumes 32.5 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−11.50%
Break-even
67.9%
Edge vs BE
−7.8 pts
Kalshi ask
71¢
Books priced
6
Minutes
32.5
Opened
1.5 -245
All 7 books · our side
Novig-212
DraftKings-220
BetRivers-240
betPARX-240
Hard Rock Bet-240
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ Assists
Price locked 10:00AM
Over 6.5assists
Slight lean · our side of the market
+118at FanDuel
LINE 6.5
over pays →
proj 6.6
0model band 5.5–7.7 · last 15 games13
48.7%
Our chance?
6.58
Projection?
±1.1
68% band
10/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 6.58 assists against a line of 6.5 — 0.08 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.7%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 12.61 points against a line of 12.5 — 0.11 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.9. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 44.7%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 44.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−3.96%
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
−1.8 pts
Books priced
8
Minutes
32.3
Opened
12.5 +100
All 8 books · our side
Novig+115
FanDuel+100
Hard Rock Bet+100
Caesars+100
BetRivers-103
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Under 21.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-114at DraftKings
LINE 21.5
← under pays
proj 20.8
0model band 15.2–26.3 · last 15 games34
51.9%
Our chance?
20.75
Projection?
±5.5
68% band
7/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 20.75 pts+reb+ast against a line of 21.5 — 0.75 to the under side, inside a band of ±5.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.9%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 55.4%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 51.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.05 rebounds against a line of 2.5 — 0.55 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 53.1%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.27 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.23 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 54.7%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 5.88 assists against a line of 6.5 — 0.62 to the under side, inside a band of ±3.4. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.1%.Risk: assumes 32.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−1.48%
Break-even
58.0%
Edge vs BE
−0.9 pts
Kalshi ask
54¢
Books priced
5
Minutes
32.2
Opened
6.5 -146
All 6 books · our side
Novig-138
ESPN BET-150
Caesars-150
DraftKings-153
FanDuel-158
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ Points
Price locked 10:30AM
Under 19.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
+100at Novig
LINE 19.5
← under pays
proj 17.6
0model band 0.0–51.4 · last 15 games55
52.7%
Our chance?
17.65
Projection?
±33.8
68% band
7/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 17.65 points against a line of 19.5 — 1.85 to the under side, inside a band of ±33.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.7%.Risk: assumes 32.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+5.46%
Break-even
50.0%
Edge vs BE
+2.7 pts
Kalshi ask
48¢
Books priced
5
Minutes
32.2
Opened
19.5 -114
All 6 books · our side
Caesars+100
Novig+100
FanDuel-104
kalshi-108
Hard Rock Bet-125
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Under 30.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-107at DraftKings
LINE 30.5
← under pays
proj 29.2
0model band 0.0–96.0 · last 15 games103
50.8%
Our chance?
29.16
Projection?
±66.8
68% band
7/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 29.16 pts+reb+ast against a line of 30.5 — 1.34 to the under side, inside a band of ±66.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.8%.Risk: assumes 32.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 4.72 rebounds against a line of 4.5 — 0.22 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 41.9%.Risk: assumes 32.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 57.6%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 41.9%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.95%
Break-even
45.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.1 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.2
Opened
4.5 +122
All 7 books · our side
Novig+122
ESPN BET+120
Hard Rock Bet+120
FanDuel+118
BetRivers+118
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ 3-Pointers Made
Price locked 10:40AM
Under 2.53-pointers made
Strong lean · our side of the market
-141at Novig
LINE 2.5
← under pays
proj 2.03
0model band 0.2–3.8 · last 15 games4
59.3%
Our chance?
2.03
Projection?
±1.8
68% band
7/15
Landed under · history
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.03 3-pointers made against a line of 2.5 — 0.47 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 59.3%.Risk: assumes 32.2 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Model EV
+1.40%
Break-even
58.5%
Edge vs BE
+0.8 pts
Kalshi ask
61¢
Books priced
7
Minutes
32.2
Opened
2.5 -165
All 8 books · our side
Novig-141
kalshi-170
DraftKings-173
Caesars-173
FanDuel-180
WAS vs LV/ 10:00PM ET/ Points
Watching · no price taken
Over 14.5points
Slight lean · our side of the market
-110at Hard Rock Bet
LINE 14.5
over pays →
proj 16.4
0model band 9.3–23.6 · last 15 games29
50.3%
Our chance?
16.45
Projection?
±7.1
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 16.45 points against a line of 14.5 — 1.95 to the over side, inside a band of ±7.1. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 50.3%.Risk: assumes 28.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 60.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.3% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 27.50 pts+reb+ast against a line of 26.5 — 1.00 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one.Risk: assumes 28.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
—
Edge vs BE
—
Books priced
0
Minutes
28.8
WAS vs LV/ 10:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Price locked 11:45AM
Under 9.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
-101at DraftKings
LINE 9.5
← under pays
proj 8.7
0model band 0.7–16.8 · last 15 games18
53.4%
Our chance?
8.72
Projection?
±8.0
68% band
8/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 8.72 rebounds against a line of 9.5 — 0.78 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 53.4%.Risk: assumes 28.8 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 11.90 points against a line of 11.5 — 0.40 to the over side, inside a band of ±5.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 48.7%.Risk: assumes 26 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.8%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 48.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Model EV
+2.85%
Break-even
47.4%
Edge vs BE
+1.3 pts
Books priced
7
Minutes
26
Opened
11.5 -105
All 7 books · our side
Novig+122
Caesars+110
FanDuel+104
ESPN BET-110
Hard Rock Bet-110
LV vs WAS/ 10:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Over 18.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-112at ProphetXline 19.5 → 18.5
LINE 18.5
over pays →
proj 20.8
0model band 16.2–25.3 · last 15 games41
50.0%
Our chance?
20.76
Projection?
±4.6
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 20.76 pts+reb+ast against a line of 18.5 — 2.26 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.6. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly.Risk: assumes 26 minutes.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 6.50 rebounds against a line of 6.5 — 0.00 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.5. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 56.7%.Risk: assumes 26 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 50.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 56.7%. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 2.22 assists against a line of 2.5 — 0.28 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.8. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 50.7%.Risk: assumes 29.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 56.3%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 50.7% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 17.84 points against a line of 17.5 — 0.34 to the over side, inside a band of ±4.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one.Risk: assumes 29.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
—
Break-even
46.5%
Edge vs BE
+3.5 pts
Books priced
4
Minutes
29.4
Opened
16.5 -120
All 4 books · our side
Novig+115
DraftKings-112
BetRivers-122
betPARX-122
WAS vs LV/ 10:00PM ET/ Pts+Reb+Ast
Watching · no price taken
Over 29.5pts+reb+ast
Slight lean · our side of the market
-104at Novig
LINE 29.5
over pays →
proj 29.5
0model band 29.0–30.1 · last 15 games45
47.9%
Our chance?
29.54
Projection?
±0.6
68% band
7/15
Landed over · history
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 29.54 pts+reb+ast against a line of 29.5 — 0.04 to the over side, inside a band of ±0.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 47.9%.Risk: assumes 29.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 52.9%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 47.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Model EV
−6.01%
Break-even
51.0%
Edge vs BE
−3.1 pts
Books priced
3
Minutes
29.4
Opened
29.5 -102
All 3 books · our side
Novig-104
FanDuel-106
DraftKings-123
WAS vs LV/ 10:00PM ET/ Rebounds
Price locked 4:06PM
Under 9.5rebounds
Slight lean · our side of the market
-114at FanDuel
LINE 9.5
← under pays
proj 9.2
0model band 2.9–15.4 · last 15 games17
52.2%
Our chance?
9.15
Projection?
±6.3
68% band
7/15
Landed under · history
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 9.15 rebounds against a line of 9.5 — 0.35 to the under side, inside a band of ±6.3. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 52.2%.Risk: assumes 29.4 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Strong lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.48 assists against a line of 4.5 — 1.02 to the under side, inside a band of ±2.9. That is barely any separation. Real, but small. Size it accordingly. After calibration we put the under at 63.8%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 16.14 points against a line of 16.5 — 0.36 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.0. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 51.3%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
Slight lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 23.85 pts+reb+ast against a line of 24.5 — 0.65 to the under side, inside a band of ±8.6. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 49.5%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 53.0%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 49.5% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.
Slight lean to the over. Our estimate sits on the over of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 3.64 rebounds against a line of 3.5 — 0.14 to the over side, inside a band of ±1.2. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the over at 45.9%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.Calibration: the shape above, on its own, would say 54.7%. Our calibration layer pulls that to 45.9% — closer to a coin flip. The number we publish, grade and pay on is the calibrated one. Raw model probabilities have historically been badly overconfident, so we never show them as the answer.We have not taken a price here, so this is not in StatIQ’s record either way. You can bet it — you would just be ahead of us, and we will not be able to claim it.
Solid lean to the under. Our estimate sits on the under of the line, but the range of plausible results still crosses it — the shaded bar above is how wide that range is.We project 1.19 3-pointers made against a line of 1.5 — 0.31 to the under side, inside a band of ±1.7. That is barely any separation. That is close to a coin flip and we are showing it as one. After calibration we put the under at 57.2%.Risk: assumes 32.3 minutes · the band crosses the line comfortably in both directions.
