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75 games with moneylines · times in ET

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GamesWin probabilities

Game win probabilities

75 games · updated 46m ago

The betting market’s own numbers, with the bookmaker’s cut taken out. Not our forecast. Ranked by how certain the favorite is. A rank is the game’s published place among the 75 games priced at publish time across every sport; a game that has started leaves this list but keeps its rank, so the numbers can skip.

  1. 1 of 75CFB
    FavoriteMiami Hurricanes
    94.5%
    fair -1735best -1800 at DraftKings
    UnderdogFlorida State Seminoles
    5.4%
    fair +1735best +1200 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET18 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  2. 2 of 75CFB
    FavoriteTemple Owls
    94.3%
    fair -1663best -1800 at DraftKings
    UnderdogCharlotte 49ers
    5.7%
    fair +1663best +1200 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  3. 3 of 75CFB
    FavoriteSouth Florida Bulls
    93.2%
    fair -1365best -1400 at BetMGM
    UnderdogKent State Golden Flashes
    6.8%
    fair +1365best +1100 at Bally Bet
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)Books disagree

    Books disagree: their de-vigged numbers span 4.5 points on this game. There is no single "market number" here.

  4. 4 of 75CFB
    FavoriteGeorgia Bulldogs
    92.5%
    fair -1225best -1200 at BetMGM
    UnderdogAuburn Tigers
    7.5%
    fair +1225best +1000 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  5. 5 of 75CFB
    FavoriteOregon State Beavers
    90.3%
    fair -934best -900 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogWashington State Cougars
    9.7%
    fair +934best +680 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 6:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  6. 6 of 75NFL
    FavoriteLos Angeles Rams
    88.0%
    fair -736best -750 at BetMGM
    UnderdogArizona Cardinals
    12.0%
    fair +736best +600 at Caesars
    Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  7. 7 of 75CFB
    FavoriteLouisiana Tech Bulldogs
    87.1%
    fair -673best -700 at BetMGM
    UnderdogUL Monroe Warhawks
    12.9%
    fair +673best +550 at BetRivers
    Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  8. 8 of 75CFB
    FavoriteUtah Utes
    87.1%
    fair -673best -700 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogColorado Buffaloes
    12.9%
    fair +673best +550 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 10:15 PM ET17 books priced both sides
  9. 9 of 75CFB
    FavoriteNorth Dakota State Bison
    86.8%
    fair -655best -700 at DraftKings
    UnderdogNevada Wolf Pack
    13.2%
    fair +655best +580 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  10. 10 of 75CFB
    FavoriteTexas Tech Red Raiders
    86.5%
    fair -638best -675 at Caesars
    UnderdogArizona State Sun Devils
    13.5%
    fair +638best +525 at BetMGM
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  11. 11 of 75CFB
    FavoriteNew Mexico Lobos
    86.4%
    fair -633best -675 at Caesars
    UnderdogHawaii Rainbow Warriors
    13.6%
    fair +633best +530 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET16 books priced both sides (15 separate companies)
  12. 12 of 75CFB
    FavoriteLSU Tigers
    86.3%
    fair -630best -650 at BetMGM
    UnderdogMississippi State Bulldogs
    13.7%
    fair +630best +500 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  13. 13 of 75CFB
    FavoriteLouisville Cardinals
    86.0%
    fair -613best -650 at BetMGM
    UnderdogSyracuse Orange
    14.0%
    fair +613best +500 at Bally Bet
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  14. 14 of 75CFB
    FavoriteOhio Bobcats
    86.0%
    fair -612best -650 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogSacramento State Hornets
    14.0%
    fair +612best +600 at betPARX
    Sat, Oct 17, 10:00 PM ET16 books priced both sides (15 separate companies)Books disagree

    Books disagree: their de-vigged numbers span 4.6 points on this game. There is no single "market number" here.

  15. 15 of 75CFB
    FavoriteFlorida International Panthers
    80.5%
    fair -412best -450 at FanDuel
    UnderdogMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders
    19.5%
    fair +412best +340 at FanDuel
    Tue, Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET2 books priced both sidesThin market

    Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.

  16. 16 of 75CFB
    FavoriteTexas Longhorns
    80.3%
    fair -407best -420 at FanDuel
    UnderdogFlorida Gators
    19.7%
    fair +407best +360 at Bally Bet
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  17. 17 of 75NFL
    FavoriteKansas City Chiefs
    80.0%
    fair -400best -425 at Fanatics
    UnderdogLos Angeles Chargers
    20.0%
    fair +400best +360 at DraftKings
    Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  18. 18 of 75CFB
    FavoriteNotre Dame Fighting Irish
    79.4%
    fair -385best -395 at DraftKings
    UnderdogBYU Cougars
    20.6%
    fair +385best +350 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  19. 19 of 75CFB
    FavoriteJames Madison Dukes
    79.3%
    fair -382best -400 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogGeorgia State Panthers
    20.7%
    fair +382best +375 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)Books disagree

    Books disagree: their de-vigged numbers span 4.4 points on this game. There is no single "market number" here.

  20. 20 of 75NFL
    FavoriteSan Francisco 49ers
    79.1%
    fair -379best -400 at BetMGM
    UnderdogWashington Commanders
    20.9%
    fair +379best +330 at DraftKings
    Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  21. 21 of 75CFB
    FavoriteWake Forest Demon Deacons
    77.8%
    fair -350best -375 at DraftKings
    UnderdogCalifornia Golden Bears
    22.2%
    fair +350best +320 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET18 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  22. 22 of 75CFB
    FavoriteVirginia Tech Hokies
    77.6%
    fair -346best -375 at DraftKings
    UnderdogGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets
    22.4%
    fair +346best +310 at Bally Bet
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  23. 23 of 75CFB
    FavoriteMiami (OH) RedHawks
    77.3%
    fair -340best -350 at BetMGM
    UnderdogAkron Zips
    22.7%
    fair +340best +310 at Bally Bet
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  24. 24 of 75CFB
    FavoriteSMU Mustangs
    76.6%
    fair -327best -335 at Caesars
    UnderdogVirginia Cavaliers
    23.4%
    fair +327best +300 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  25. 25 of 75CFB
    FavoriteLiberty Flames
    76.1%
    fair -318best -345 at FanDuel
    UnderdogKennesaw State Owls
    23.9%
    fair +318best +270 at FanDuel
    Thu, Oct 22, 7:00 PM ET2 books priced both sidesThin market

    Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.

  26. 26 of 75NFL
    FavoriteNew England Patriots
    76.0%
    fair -316best -340 at FanDuel
    UnderdogNew York Jets
    24.0%
    fair +316best +275 at DraftKings
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  27. 27 of 75CFB
    FavoriteAlabama Crimson Tide
    75.1%
    fair -301best -315 at BetRivers
    UnderdogTennessee Volunteers
    24.9%
    fair +301best +270 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  28. 28 of 75NFL
    FavoriteIndianapolis Colts
    74.9%
    fair -298best -320 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogTennessee Titans
    25.1%
    fair +298best +275 at betPARX
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  29. 29 of 75CFB
    FavoriteWyoming Cowboys
    74.4%
    fair -291best -300 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogNorthern Illinois Huskies
    25.6%
    fair +291best +270 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  30. 30 of 75CFB
    FavoriteFresno State Bulldogs
    73.5%
    fair -277best -295 at FanDuel
    UnderdogSan Diego State Aztecs
    26.5%
    fair +277best +260 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET16 books priced both sides (15 separate companies)
  31. 31 of 75CFB
    FavoriteNorthwestern Wildcats
    73.2%
    fair -273best -285 at FanDuel
    UnderdogMichigan State Spartans
    26.8%
    fair +273best +250 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  32. 32 of 75CFB
    FavoriteMemphis Tigers
    71.5%
    fair -251best -260 at FanDuel
    UnderdogTulane Green Wave
    28.5%
    fair +251best +225 at ESPN BET
    Fri, Oct 16, 7:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  33. 33 of 75CFB
    FavoriteOregon Ducks
    71.3%
    fair -249best -245 at FanDuel
    UnderdogNebraska Cornhuskers
    28.7%
    fair +249best +220 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 17, 11:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  34. 34 of 75CFB
    FavoriteSan Jose State Spartans
    71.2%
    fair -247best -250 at FanDuel
    UnderdogUTEP Miners
    28.8%
    fair +247best +230 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 9:00 PM ET16 books priced both sides (15 separate companies)
  35. 35 of 75CFB
    FavoriteBuffalo Bulls
    70.6%
    fair -241best -240 at Hard Rock
    UnderdogUMass Minutemen
    29.4%
    fair +241best +220 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET16 books priced both sides (15 separate companies)
  36. 36 of 75CFB
    FavoriteWestern Michigan Broncos
    70.4%
    fair -238best -250 at BetMGM
    UnderdogCentral Michigan Chippewas
    29.6%
    fair +238best +215 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 1:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  37. 37 of 75CFB
    FavoriteUTSA Roadrunners
    70.3%
    fair -237best -250 at BetMGM
    UnderdogNavy Midshipmen
    29.7%
    fair +237best +230 at betPARX
    Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  38. 38 of 75CFB
    FavoriteMichigan Wolverines
    70.2%
    fair -236best -250 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogPenn State Nittany Lions
    29.8%
    fair +236best +220 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET18 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  39. 39 of 75CFB
    FavoriteToledo Rockets
    69.5%
    fair -228best -235 at BetMGM
    UnderdogEastern Michigan Eagles
    30.5%
    fair +228best +210 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  40. 40 of 75CFB
    FavoriteOklahoma Sooners
    69.5%
    fair -228best -235 at BetMGM
    UnderdogKentucky Wildcats
    30.5%
    fair +228best +215 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  41. 41 of 75CFB
    FavoriteBowling Green Falcons
    69.5%
    fair -228best -230 at Hard Rock
    UnderdogBall State Cardinals
    30.5%
    fair +228best +210 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  42. 42 of 75NFL
    FavoriteBuffalo Bills
    68.8%
    fair -220best -218 at DraftKings
    UnderdogLas Vegas Raiders
    31.2%
    fair +220best +200 at FanDuel
    Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  43. 43 of 75CFB
    FavoriteArkansas State Red Wolves
    68.6%
    fair -218best -230 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles
    31.4%
    fair +218best +210 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  44. 44 of 75CFB
    FavoritePittsburgh Panthers
    68.5%
    fair -218best -230 at FanDuel
    UnderdogBoston College Eagles
    31.5%
    fair +218best +215 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  45. 45 of 75CFB
    FavoriteVanderbilt Commodores
    68.2%
    fair -214best -215 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogArkansas Razorbacks
    31.9%
    fair +214best +190 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  46. 46 of 75CFB
    FavoriteBaylor Bears
    67.7%
    fair -210best -218 at DraftKings
    UnderdogTCU Horned Frogs
    32.3%
    fair +210best +195 at betPARX
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  47. 47 of 75CFB
    FavoriteOle Miss Rebels
    66.9%
    fair -202best -215 at Fanatics
    UnderdogMissouri Tigers
    33.1%
    fair +202best +185 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET18 books priced both sides
  48. 48 of 75NHL
    FavoriteColorado Avalanche
    66.3%
    fair -197best -200 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogPittsburgh Penguins
    33.7%
    fair +197best +185 at BetRivers
    Fri, Oct 16, 9:10 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  49. 49 of 75CFB
    FavoriteMaryland Terrapins
    66.0%
    fair -194best -200 at Caesars
    UnderdogRutgers Scarlet Knights
    34.0%
    fair +194best +180 at FanDuel
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  50. 50 of 75NFL
    FavoriteBaltimore Ravens
    66.0%
    fair -194best -205 at DraftKings
    UnderdogCleveland Browns
    34.0%
    fair +194best +185 at BetRivers
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  51. 51 of 75CFB
    FavoriteKansas State Wildcats
    64.5%
    fair -181best -184 at FanDuel
    UnderdogKansas Jayhawks
    35.5%
    fair +181best +168 at Caesars
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  52. 52 of 75CFB
    FavoriteHouston Cougars
    64.1%
    fair -179best -184 at FanDuel
    UnderdogOklahoma State Cowboys
    35.9%
    fair +179best +165 at Bally Bet
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  53. 53 of 75CFB
    FavoriteTulsa Golden Hurricane
    64.1%
    fair -179best -188 at FanDuel
    UnderdogRice Owls
    35.9%
    fair +179best +170 at ESPN BET
    Sat, Oct 17, 4:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  54. 54 of 75NFL
    FavoriteCarolina Panthers
    63.3%
    fair -173best -180 at FanDuel
    UnderdogPhiladelphia Eagles
    36.7%
    fair +173best +165 at ESPN BET
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  55. 55 of 75CFB
    FavoriteIowa Hawkeyes
    62.9%
    fair -170best -182 at FanDuel
    UnderdogMinnesota Golden Gophers
    37.1%
    fair +170best +154 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 AM ET3 books priced both sidesThin market

    Thin market: only 3 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.

  56. 56 of 75CFB
    FavoriteOhio State Buckeyes
    61.7%
    fair -161best -170 at FanDuel
    UnderdogIndiana Hoosiers
    38.3%
    fair +161best +150 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  57. 57 of 75CFB
    FavoritePurdue Boilermakers
    61.5%
    fair -159best -164 at FanDuel
    UnderdogWashington Huskies
    38.5%
    fair +159best +142 at DraftKings
    Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET18 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  58. 58 of 75CFB
    FavoriteDuke Blue Devils
    59.3%
    fair -145best -145 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogNorth Carolina Tar Heels
    40.7%
    fair +145best +135 at Caesars
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  59. 59 of 75CFB
    FavoriteLouisiana Ragin Cajuns
    58.8%
    fair -143best -150 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogTroy Trojans
    41.2%
    fair +143best +136 at Caesars
    Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  60. 60 of 75WNBA
    FavoriteGolden State Valkyries
    58.3%
    fair -140best -142 at DraftKings
    UnderdogAtlanta Dream
    41.7%
    fair +140best +130 at BetMGM
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET18 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)
  61. 61 of 75NFL
    FavoriteJacksonville Jaguars
    57.5%
    fair -135best -140 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogHouston Texans
    42.5%
    fair +135best +125 at Hard Rock (OH)
    Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  62. 62 of 75NFL
    FavoritePittsburgh Steelers
    56.9%
    fair -132best -139 at Caesars
    UnderdogTampa Bay Buccaneers
    43.1%
    fair +132best +125 at Hard Rock (OH)
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET20 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  63. 63 of 75CFB
    FavoriteNew Mexico State Aggies
    56.6%
    fair -130best -142 at FanDuel
    UnderdogSam Houston State Bearkats
    43.4%
    fair +130best +118 at FanDuel
    Wed, Oct 21, 8:00 PM ET2 books priced both sidesThin market

    Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.

  64. 64 of 75CFB
    FavoriteUCLA Bruins
    56.4%
    fair -129best -135 at Hard Rock
    UnderdogWisconsin Badgers
    43.6%
    fair +129best +120 at DraftKings
    Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  65. 65 of 75CFB
    FavoriteSouth Alabama Jaguars
    55.7%
    fair -126best -137 at FanDuel
    UnderdogMarshall Thundering Herd
    44.3%
    fair +126best +114 at FanDuel
    Tue, Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET2 books priced both sidesThin market

    Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.

  66. 66 of 75CFB
    FavoriteArmy Black Knights
    55.5%
    fair -125best -130 at FanDuel
    UnderdogFlorida Atlantic Owls
    44.5%
    fair +125best +116 at Caesars
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  67. 67 of 75NFL
    FavoriteChicago Bears
    54.3%
    fair -119best -125 at DraftKings
    UnderdogNew England Patriots
    45.7%
    fair +119best +110 at FanDuel
    Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET10 books priced both sides
  68. 68 of 75CFB
    FavoriteWest Virginia Mountaineers
    52.8%
    fair -112best -118 at FanDuel
    UnderdogCincinnati Bearcats
    47.3%
    fair +112best +107 at Caesars
    Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  69. 69 of 75NFL
    FavoriteGreen Bay Packers
    52.3%
    fair -110best -116 at FanDuel
    UnderdogDallas Cowboys
    47.7%
    fair +110best +101 at Caesars
    Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  70. 70 of 75CFB
    FavoriteAppalachian State Mountaineers
    52.2%
    fair -109best -115 at FanDuel
    UnderdogCoastal Carolina Chanticleers
    47.8%
    fair +109best +100 at Hard Rock
    Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  71. 71 of 75NFL
    FavoriteChicago Bears
    51.7%
    fair -107best -115 at Fanatics
    UnderdogAtlanta Falcons
    48.3%
    fair +107best +104 at FanDuel
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  72. 72 of 75NHL
    FavoriteBoston Bruins
    51.2%
    fair -105best -110 at BetRivers
    UnderdogAnaheim Ducks
    48.8%
    fair +105best +101 at Caesars
    Fri, Oct 16, 10:10 PM ET19 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  73. 73 of 75CFB
    FavoriteAir Force Falcons
    51.1%
    fair -105best -110 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogUNLV Rebels
    48.9%
    fair +105best +100 at Hard Rock
    Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET14 books priced both sides
  74. 74 of 75NFL
    FavoriteNew Orleans Saints
    50.7%
    fair -103best -110 at BetRivers
    UnderdogNew York Giants
    49.3%
    fair +103best +100 at ESPN BET
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET16 books priced both sides (15 separate companies)
  75. 75 of 75MLB
    FavoriteTampa Bay Rays
    50.6%
    fair -103best -110 at BetRivers
    UnderdogCleveland Guardians
    49.4%
    fair +103best -102 at FanDuel
    Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET18 books priced both sides (17 separate companies)

No market yet

3 scheduled games on this slate have fewer than two books quoting both sides, so there is no consensus to de-vig. We would rather show the gap than invent a number from a single quote.

  • CFB Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Clemson Tigers · Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
  • CFB Citadel Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies · Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET
  • CFB Elon Phoenix at Stanford Cardinal · Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
How these numbers are built, and why they are not our forecast

This is what the betting market thinks, with the bookmaker’s cut taken out. We take every sportsbook’s own two prices on a game, strip its margin , and publish the middle number across books. Then we rank the slate by how certain the favorite is.

It is not our forecast, and we are not claiming to beat it. We have no game-winner model. We built one for UFC and tested it against 2,680 real closing prices over six seasons: the market beat it in every single year. This number is our best available estimate precisely because the game market is efficient. There is no edge being sold here, and anyone telling you they can price a moneyline better than the market owes you the same test.

Useful for: seeing a whole week at a glance, filling in a confidence pool, and checking whether a price you were offered is roughly fair. Not useful for: finding a bet we think wins.

Prices move. Always confirm the live number at your book before you act on anything here.