Bryce Young passing yards projection vs the line

CAR · QB · #9

Next game vs DEN · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

234.4StatIQ projection · passing yards

225.5Line · consensus

+8.9Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 1 book quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	234.4	225.5	+8.9
Passing Touchdowns	1.4	1.5	−0.1

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

243.2Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 225.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

191

Dec 21

Dec 28

266

Jan 3

361

Sep 13

287

Sep 20

291

Sep 27

329

Oct 4

281

Oct 18

163

Oct 25

209

Oct 29

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 29 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Oct 29, 2026at GB	209	1
Oct 25, 2026vs TB	163	1
Oct 18, 2026at PHI	281	2
Oct 4, 2026vs DET	329	2
Sep 27, 2026at CLE	291	1
Sep 20, 2026at ATL	287	3
Sep 13, 2026vs CHI	361	3
Jan 3, 2026at TB	266	2
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA	54	0
Dec 21, 2025vs TB	191	2
Average · last 10 games	243.2	1.7

Bryce Young’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Bryce Young has averaged 254.6 yards over his last 5 games and 274.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Bryce Young’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+8.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Bryce Young’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CAR vs DEN

Opponent: DEN
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: DEN allowed the 22nd-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 212.1 yards/game · 22nd of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Bryce Young

Passing Yards · line 225.5.

1 book has a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.

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