Dak Prescott passing yards projection vs the line

DAL · QB · #4

Next game at IND · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

267.6StatIQ projection · passing yards

262.5Line · consensus

+5.1Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	267.6	262.5	+5.1
Passing Touchdowns	1.6	2.5	−0.9

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

242.3Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 262.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

307

Dec 25

Jan 4

175

Sep 13

279

Sep 20

276

Sep 27

335

Oct 4

316

Oct 8

258

Oct 18

212

Oct 26

195

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026vs ARI	195	1
Oct 26, 2026at PHI	212	3
Oct 18, 2026at GB	258	1
Oct 8, 2026vs TB	316	1
Oct 4, 2026at HOU	335	1
Sep 27, 2026vs BAL	276	1
Sep 20, 2026vs WSH	279	4
Sep 13, 2026at NYG	175	2
Jan 4, 2026at NYG	70	0
Dec 25, 2025at WSH	307	2
Average · last 10 games	242.3	1.6

Dak Prescott’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Dak Prescott has averaged 263.2 yards over his last 5 games and 255.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Dak Prescott’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+5.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Dak Prescott’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs IND

Opponent: IND
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: IND allowed the 2nd-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 262.5 yards/game · 2nd of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Dak Prescott

Passing Yards · line 262.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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