Brock Purdy passing yards projection vs the line

SF · QB · #13

Next game vs LV · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

266.2StatIQ projection · passing yards

244.5Line · consensus

+21.7Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	266.2	244.5	+21.7
Passing Touchdowns	2.2	2.5	−0.3

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

247.3Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 244.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

295

Dec 22

303

Dec 28

127

Jan 3

205

Sep 10

287

Sep 20

297

Sep 27

218

Oct 4

189

Oct 11

264

Oct 19

288

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Oct 25, 2026at ATL	288	1
Oct 19, 2026vs WSH	264	1
Oct 11, 2026at SEA	189	2
Oct 4, 2026vs DEN	218	2
Sep 27, 2026vs ARI	297	4
Sep 20, 2026vs MIA	287	2
Sep 10, 2026vs LAR	205	3
Jan 3, 2026vs SEA	127	0
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI	303	3
Dec 22, 2025at IND	295	5
Average · last 10 games	247.3	2.3

Brock Purdy’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Brock Purdy has averaged 251.2 yards over his last 5 games and 249.7 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Brock Purdy’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+21.7 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Brock Purdy’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of LV vs SF

Opponent: LV
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: LV allowed the 20th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 214.4 yards/game · 20th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Brock Purdy

Passing Yards · line 244.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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