Justin Herbert passing yards projection vs the line
LAC · QB · #10
Next game vs HOU · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 3 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 221.5 | 207.5 | +14.0 |
| Rushing Yards | 20.4 | 22.5 | −2.1 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 23.2 | No line yet | – |
| Passing Touchdowns | 1.2 | 0.5 | +0.7 |
Recent passing yards
214.4Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 207.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | RUSH+REC | PASS TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at LAR | 257 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Oct 18, 2026at KC | 204 | 26 | 26 | 0 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs DEN | 121 | 54 | 54 | 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026at SEA | 189 | 40 | 40 | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026at BUF | 226 | 17 | 17 | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs LV | 192 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs ARI | 209 | 29 | 29 | 1 |
| Dec 27, 2025vs HOU | 236 | 37 | 37 | 1 |
| Dec 21, 2025at DAL | 300 | 42 | 42 | 2 |
| Dec 14, 2025at KC | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Average · last 10 games | 214.4 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 0.9 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: rushing yards
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections
57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
41 of 92 within 45 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Justin Herbert has averaged 199.4 yards over his last 5 games, 199.7 yards per game this season (2026), and 236 yards across 1 game against HOU; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Justin Herbert’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+14.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Justin Herbert’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- HOU
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- HOU allowed the 27th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 204.1 yards/game · 27th of 32
- Against HOU
- 236 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample
Compare prices
Passing Yards · line 207.5.
3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Justin Herbert, answered here:
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