Ja'Marr Chase receiving yards projection vs the line

CIN · WR · #1

Next game Opponent: ATL · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

75.6StatIQ projection · receiving yards

78.5Line · consensus

−2.9Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	75.6	78.5	−2.9
Rush + Rec Yards	82.8	No line yet	–
Receptions	7.4	6.5	+0.9

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

75.7Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 78.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

109

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 25

141

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs TEN	141	141	11
Oct 25, 2026at BAL	62	62	5
Oct 11, 2026at MIA	77	77	6
Oct 4, 2026vs JAX	27	27	3
Sep 27, 2026at PIT	98	98	9
Sep 20, 2026at HOU	75	75	7
Sep 13, 2026vs TB	12	12	2
Jan 4, 2026vs CLE	96	96	8
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI	60	60	7
Dec 21, 2025at MIA	109	109	9
Average · last 10 games	75.7	75.7	6.7

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Ja'Marr Chase’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Ja'Marr Chase has averaged 81 yards over his last 5 games and 70.3 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Ja'Marr Chase’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−2.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Ja'Marr Chase’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: ATL · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: ATL allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 143.4 yards/game · 14th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Ja'Marr Chase

Receiving Yards · line 78.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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