Patrick Mahomes passing yards projection vs the line

KC · QB · #15

Next game vs NYJ · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

276.8StatIQ projection · passing yards

244.5Line · consensus

+32.3Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	276.8	244.5	+32.3
Passing Touchdowns	2.0	2.5	−0.5

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

240.5Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 244.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

261

Nov 27

160

Dec 7

189

Dec 14

184

Sep 14

382

Sep 20

246

Sep 27

225

Oct 4

272

Oct 18

165

Oct 25

321

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026at DEN	321	3
Oct 25, 2026at SEA	165	0
Oct 18, 2026vs LAC	272	0
Oct 4, 2026at LV	225	2
Sep 27, 2026at MIA	246	2
Sep 20, 2026vs IND	382	3
Sep 14, 2026vs DEN	184	2
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC	189	0
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU	160	0
Nov 27, 2025at DAL	261	4
Average · last 10 games	240.5	1.6

Patrick Mahomes’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 245.8 yards over his last 5 games and 256.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+32.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Patrick Mahomes’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of KC vs NYJ

Opponent: NYJ
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NYJ allowed the 17th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 224.2 yards/game · 17th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Patrick Mahomes

Passing Yards · line 244.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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