Caleb Williams passing yards projection vs the line

CHI · QB · #18

Next game vs TB · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET

245.7StatIQ projection · passing yards

245.5Line · consensus

+0.2Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	245.7	245.5	+0.2
Rushing Yards	23.4	19.5	+4.0
Rush + Rec Yards	23.0	No line yet	–
Passing Touchdowns	1.7	1.5	+0.2

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

248.7Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 245.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

186

Dec 7

242

Dec 14

250

Dec 20

330

Dec 28

212

Jan 4

269

Sep 13

138

Sep 20

305

Oct 18

308

Oct 22

247

Nov 2

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 2 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	RUSH YDS	RUSH+REC	PASS TD
Nov 2, 2026at SEA	247	1	1	1
Oct 22, 2026vs NE	308	18	18	2
Oct 18, 2026at ATL	305	3	3	1
Sep 20, 2026vs MIN	138	42	42	0
Sep 13, 2026at CAR	269	65	65	2
Jan 4, 2026vs DET	212	1	1	2
Dec 28, 2025at SF	330	18	18	2
Dec 20, 2025vs GB	250	30	30	2
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE	242	13	13	2
Dec 7, 2025at GB	186	15	15	2
Average · last 10 games	248.7	20.6	20.6	1.6

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: rushing yards

Caleb Williams’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Caleb Williams has averaged 253.4 yards over his last 5 games and 253.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Caleb Williams’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+0.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Caleb Williams’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CHI vs TB

Opponent: TB
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: TB allowed the 6th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 254.8 yards/game · 6th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Caleb Williams

Passing Yards · line 245.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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