Baker Mayfield passing yards projection vs the line
TB · QB · #6
Next game at CHI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 7 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 121.8 | 213.5 | −91.7 |
| Passing Touchdowns | 0.9 | 1.5 | −0.6 |
Recent passing yards
177.2Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 213.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | PASS YDS | PASS TD |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026vs ATL | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 25, 2026at CAR | 64 | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs MIN | 217 | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs CLE | 182 | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026at CIN | 216 | 0 |
| Jan 3, 2026vs CAR | 203 | 1 |
| Dec 28, 2025at MIA | 346 | 2 |
| Dec 21, 2025at CAR | 145 | 1 |
| Dec 11, 2025vs ATL | 277 | 2 |
| Dec 7, 2025vs NO | 122 | 1 |
| Average · last 10 games | 177.2 | 1 |
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections
57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
41 of 92 within 45 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Baker Mayfield has averaged 135.8 yards over his last 5 games and 135.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Baker Mayfield’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−91.7 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Baker Mayfield’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- CHI
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- CHI allowed the 11th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 239.2 yards/game · 11th of 32
Compare prices
Passing Yards · line 213.5.
7 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −113 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Baker Mayfield, answered here:
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