C.J. Stroud passing yards projection vs the line

HOU · QB · #7

Next game at LAC · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

226.7StatIQ projection · passing yards

249.5Line · consensus

−22.8Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	226.7	249.5	−22.8
Passing Touchdowns	1.6	1.5	+0.1

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

246.7Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 249.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

187

Dec 21

244

Dec 27

169

Jan 4

274

Sep 13

353

Sep 20

167

Sep 27

347

Oct 4

261

Oct 11

312

Oct 18

153

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Oct 25, 2026vs NYG	153	2
Oct 18, 2026vs JAX	312	3
Oct 11, 2026at TEN	261	1
Oct 4, 2026vs DAL	347	2
Sep 27, 2026at IND	167	1
Sep 20, 2026vs CIN	353	0
Sep 13, 2026vs BUF	274	2
Jan 4, 2026vs IND	169	1
Dec 27, 2025at LAC	244	2
Dec 21, 2025vs LV	187	1
Average · last 10 games	246.7	1.5

C.J. Stroud’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, C.J. Stroud has averaged 248 yards over his last 5 games, 266.7 yards per game this season (2026), and 244 yards across 1 game against LAC; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for C.J. Stroud’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−22.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: C.J. Stroud’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of HOU vs LAC

Opponent: LAC
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: LAC allowed the 29th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 194.5 yards/game · 29th of 32
Against LAC: 244 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample

Compare prices

Passing Yards · C.J. Stroud

Passing Yards · line 249.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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