Joe Burrow passing yards projection vs the line

CIN · QB · #9

Next game Opponent: ATL · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

285.7StatIQ projection · passing yards

276.5Line · consensus

+9.2Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	285.7	276.5	+9.2
Passing Touchdowns	2.4	2.5	−0.1

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

296.5Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 276.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

309

Dec 21

305

Dec 28

236

Jan 4

254

Sep 13

207

Sep 20

282

Sep 27

428

Oct 4

190

Oct 11

292

Oct 25

462

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026vs TEN	462	5
Oct 25, 2026at BAL	292	4
Oct 11, 2026at MIA	190	4
Oct 4, 2026vs JAX	428	1
Sep 27, 2026at PIT	282	3
Sep 20, 2026at HOU	207	2
Sep 13, 2026vs TB	254	1
Jan 4, 2026vs CLE	236	3
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI	305	2
Dec 21, 2025at MIA	309	4
Average · last 10 games	296.5	2.9

Joe Burrow’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Joe Burrow has averaged 330.8 yards over his last 5 games and 302.1 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Joe Burrow’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+9.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Joe Burrow’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: ATL · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: ATL allowed the 18th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 221.9 yards/game · 18th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Joe Burrow

Passing Yards · line 276.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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