Bo Nix passing yards projection vs the line

DEN · QB · #10

Next game at CAR · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

226.5StatIQ projection · passing yards

210.5Line · consensus

+16.0Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	226.5	210.5	+16.0
Passing Touchdowns	1.4	1.5	−0.1

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

181.6Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 210.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

182

Dec 25

141

Jan 4

131

Sep 14

288

Sep 20

186

Sep 27

214

Oct 4

123

Oct 11

107

Oct 15

222

Oct 25

222

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026vs KC	222	2
Oct 25, 2026at ARI	222	1
Oct 15, 2026vs SEA	107	0
Oct 11, 2026at LAC	123	1
Oct 4, 2026at SF	214	1
Sep 27, 2026vs LAR	186	2
Sep 20, 2026vs JAX	288	1
Sep 14, 2026at KC	131	1
Jan 4, 2026vs LAC	141	0
Dec 25, 2025at KC	182	1
Average · last 10 games	181.6	1

Bo Nix’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Bo Nix has averaged 177.6 yards over his last 5 games and 186.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Bo Nix’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+16.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Bo Nix’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of CAR vs DEN

Opponent: CAR
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CAR allowed the 19th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 215.1 yards/game · 19th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Bo Nix

Passing Yards · line 210.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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