Jared Goff passing yards projection vs the line

DET · QB · #16

Next game at MIA · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

276.8StatIQ projection · passing yards

261.5Line · consensus

+15.3Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	276.8	261.5	+15.3
Passing Touchdowns	2.0	2.5	−0.5

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

285.6Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 261.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

364

Dec 21

197

Dec 25

331

Jan 4

206

Sep 13

327

Sep 17

269

Sep 27

412

Oct 4

271

Oct 11

303

Oct 25

176

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026vs MIN	176	1
Oct 25, 2026vs GB	303	2
Oct 11, 2026at ARI	271	3
Oct 4, 2026at CAR	412	1
Sep 27, 2026vs NYJ	269	2
Sep 17, 2026at BUF	327	4
Sep 13, 2026vs NO	206	2
Jan 4, 2026at CHI	331	1
Dec 25, 2025at MIN	197	1
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT	364	3
Average · last 10 games	285.6	2

Jared Goff’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jared Goff has averaged 286.2 yards over his last 5 games and 280.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jared Goff’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+15.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jared Goff’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DET vs MIA

Opponent: MIA
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: MIA allowed the 15th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 230.6 yards/game · 15th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Jared Goff

Passing Yards · line 261.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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