Trevor Lawrence Projections
JAX · QB · #16
This week’s game has kicked off. The result lands in the game log
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 2 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 243.3 | 234.5 | +8.8 |
| Rushing Yards | 13.0 | 12.5 | +0.5 |
| Passing Touchdowns | 1.7 | 1.5 | +0.2 |
Recent passing yards
245.0Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 234.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 5 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | PASS YDS | RUSH YDS | PASS TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026at BAL | 242 | -1 | 1 |
| Nov 1, 2026vs IND | 210 | 10 | 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs HOU | 306 | 11 | 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs PHI | 331 | 25 | 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026at CIN | 227 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs NE | 182 | 25 | 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026at DEN | 189 | 6 | 0 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs CLE | 245 | 3 | 4 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs TEN | 255 | 11 | 3 |
| Dec 28, 2025at IND | 263 | 26 | 0 |
| Average · last 10 games | 245 | 11.6 | 2.1 |
Stats and game log: rushing yards
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections
57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
41 of 92 within 45 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Trevor Lawrence has averaged 263.2 yards over his last 5 games, 241.5 yards per game this season (2026), and 242 yards across 1 game against BAL; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Nov 1, 2026): 251.2 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line. A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Trevor Lawrence’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- BAL
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- BAL allowed the 4th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 259 yards/game · 4th of 32
- Against BAL
- 242 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample
Compare prices
Passing Yards · line 234.5.
2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −113.
Pre-game prices as of Nov 6, 8:12 AM ET. The game has started, so these are not live.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Trevor Lawrence, answered here:
Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.
Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.