Geno Smith passing yards projection vs the line

NYJ · QB · #7

Next game at KC · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

202.5StatIQ projection · passing yards

212.5Line · consensus

−10.0Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	202.5	212.5	−10.0
Passing Touchdowns	1.1	1.5	−0.4

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

229.0Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 212.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

201

Dec 21

176

Dec 28

215

Sep 13

247

Sep 20

321

Sep 27

119

Oct 4

182

Oct 11

252

Oct 18

287

Oct 25

290

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026vs LV	290	2
Oct 25, 2026vs MIA	287	3
Oct 18, 2026at NE	252	1
Oct 11, 2026vs CLE	182	1
Oct 4, 2026at CHI	119	1
Sep 27, 2026at DET	321	3
Sep 20, 2026vs GB	247	1
Sep 13, 2026at TEN	215	0
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG	176	1
Dec 21, 2025at HOU	201	2
Average · last 10 games	229	1.5

Geno Smith’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Geno Smith has averaged 226 yards over his last 5 games, 239.1 yards per game this season (2026), and 67 yards across 1 game against KC; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Geno Smith’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−10.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Geno Smith’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of KC vs NYJ

Opponent: KC
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: KC allowed the 25th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 205.1 yards/game · 25th of 32
Against KC: 67 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Geno Smith

Passing Yards · line 212.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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