No-vig odds calculator
Side A
- Implied probability
- 52.38%
- No-vig fair probability
- 50.00%
- No-vig fair odds
- +100
Side B
- Implied probability
- 52.38%
- No-vig fair probability
- 50.00%
- No-vig fair odds
- +100
The book’s hold
- Hold (the book's margin)
- 4.55%
- Overround
- 4.76%
- Implied probabilities add to
- 104.76%
Hold is the margin as a share of the total (1 − 1/sum). Overround is how far the sum of the implied probabilities sits above 100% (sum − 1).
No-vig method: proportional (multiplicative). Each side’s implied probability is divided by the total of both, so the two fair probabilities add to 100%. It assumes the book takes its margin equally from both sides, which is an approximation, not a fact about any one book.
What is implied probability?
Implied probability is the chance a price says an outcome has, written as a percent. A price of −110 implies 52.38%: you risk 110 to win 100, so the bet breaks even if it wins 52.38% of the time. Because the book’s margin is inside the price, it is the number a bet has to beat, not a fair estimate of the chance.
What are hold and vig?
Hold (also called vig or juice) is the book’s margin in a two-way market. Add the two implied probabilities; whatever they total above 100% is the margin, and the hold is that excess as a share of the total. It is why a true coin flip priced at −110 on both sides loses money over time.
What does no-vig mean?
No-vig, or fair, odds are the two prices with the margin taken out, so the two probabilities add to exactly 100%. This page uses the proportional (multiplicative) method: each implied probability divided by the total. Other methods split the margin differently and give slightly different answers on lopsided markets, so treat the result as the market’s read, not a certainty.
How do you calculate no-vig odds?
Convert both prices to implied probabilities, divide each by their sum, then turn the result back into odds: for +150 / −180 that is 40.00% and 64.29%, a total of 104.29%, so the fair probabilities are 38.36% and 61.64%.
What is the vig on −110 / −110?
About 4.5%: the two sides imply 104.76% together, an overround of 4.76%, and the hold is that margin as a share of the total, 4.55%. Each side needs to win 52.38% of the time to break even; the no-vig price is +100 on both.
What does expected value per $100 mean here?
If you enter your own probability, the calculator shows the average result per $100 staked if that probability were exactly right. It is arithmetic on your input. It cannot tell you whether your probability is correct, and it does not predict any single bet.
More on terms in the glossary entry for vig and no-vig price, or see the other calculators on the tools page.
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