Jayden Daniels passing yards projection vs the line

WAS · QB · #5

Next game vs LA · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

178.0StatIQ projection · passing yards

215.5Line · consensus

−37.5Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 1 book quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	178.0	215.5	−37.5
Rushing Yards	39.8	38.5	+1.3
Rush + Rec Yards	35.9	No line yet	–
Passing Touchdowns	1.1	1.5	−0.4

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

180.5Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 215.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

231

Oct 5

211

Oct 13

156

Oct 19

153

Nov 2

Dec 7

164

Sep 13

Sep 20

199

Oct 11

300

Oct 19

217

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	RUSH YDS	RUSH+REC	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026vs PHI	217	23	23	1
Oct 19, 2026at SF	300	10	10	2
Oct 11, 2026vs NYG	199	103	103	0
Sep 20, 2026at DAL	96	69	69	1
Sep 13, 2026at PHI	164	31	31	2
Dec 7, 2025at MIN	78	16	16	0
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA	153	51	51	0
Oct 19, 2025at DAL	156	35	35	1
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI	211	52	52	3
Oct 5, 2025at LAC	231	39	39	1
Average · last 10 games	180.5	42.9	42.9	1.1

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: rushing yards

Jayden Daniels’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jayden Daniels has averaged 195.2 yards over his last 5 games and 195.2 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jayden Daniels’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−37.5 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jayden Daniels’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of LA vs WAS

Opponent: LA
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: LA allowed the 13th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 232.9 yards/game · 13th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Jayden Daniels

Passing Yards · line 215.5.

1 book has a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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