Xavier Worthy receiving yards projection vs the line
KC · WR · #1
Next game vs NYJ · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 5 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 43.5 | 34.5 | +9.0 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 39.3 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 3.8 | 3.5 | +0.3 |
Recent receiving yards
30.6Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 34.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at DEN | 13 | 13 | 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026at SEA | 11 | 11 | 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs LAC | 73 | 73 | 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026at LV | 70 | 70 | 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026at MIA | 20 | 20 | 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs IND | 25 | 25 | 5 |
| Sep 14, 2026vs DEN | 18 | 18 | 3 |
| Dec 25, 2025vs DEN | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dec 21, 2025at TEN | 41 | 41 | 2 |
| Dec 14, 2025vs LAC | 35 | 35 | 2 |
| Average · last 10 games | 30.6 | 30.7 | 3.1 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Xavier Worthy has averaged 37.4 yards over his last 5 games and 32.9 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Xavier Worthy’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+9.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Xavier Worthy’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- NYJ
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- NYJ allowed the 18th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 136.1 yards/game · 18th of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 34.5.
5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −116 · Under −113.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Xavier Worthy, answered here:
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