Kenneth Walker III rushing yards projection vs the line

KC · RB · #9

Next game vs NYJ · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

92.3StatIQ projection · rushing yards

90.5Line · consensus

+1.8Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 8 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	92.3	90.5	+1.8
Receiving Yards	20.0	17.5	+2.5
Rush + Rec Yards	118.6	112.5	+6.1
Receptions	2.7	2.5	+0.2

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

101.8Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 90.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

100

Dec 18

Dec 28

Jan 3

173

Sep 14

117

Sep 20

Sep 27

177

Oct 4

128

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at DEN	69	15	84	4
Oct 25, 2026at SEA	36	21	57	4
Oct 18, 2026vs LAC	128	11	139	2
Oct 4, 2026at LV	177	2	179	1
Sep 27, 2026at MIA	70	3	73	2
Sep 20, 2026vs IND	117	61	178	6
Sep 14, 2026vs DEN	173	18	191	3
Jan 3, 2026at SF	97	36	133	4
Dec 28, 2025at CAR	51	6	57	2
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR	100	64	164	3
Average · last 10 games	101.8	23.7	125.5	3.1

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Kenneth Walker III’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Kenneth Walker III has averaged 96 yards over his last 5 games and 110 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+1.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Kenneth Walker III’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of KC vs NYJ

Opponent: NYJ
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NYJ allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 110 yards/game · 5th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Kenneth Walker III

Rushing Yards · line 90.5.

8 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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