Travis Kelce receiving yards projection vs the line

KC · TE · #87

Next game vs NYJ · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

41.9StatIQ projection · receiving yards

45.5Line · consensus

−3.6Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 1 book quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	41.9	45.5	−3.6
Rush + Rec Yards	46.1	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.2	4.5	−0.3

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

46.4Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 45.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Dec 25

Jan 4

Sep 14

101

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at DEN	67	67	5
Oct 25, 2026at SEA	44	44	4
Oct 18, 2026vs LAC	53	53	4
Oct 4, 2026at LV	15	15	2
Sep 27, 2026at MIA	59	59	2
Sep 20, 2026vs IND	101	101	9
Sep 14, 2026vs DEN	71	71	3
Jan 4, 2026at LV	12	12	3
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN	36	36	5
Dec 21, 2025at TEN	6	6	1
Average · last 10 games	46.4	46.4	3.8

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Travis Kelce’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Travis Kelce has averaged 47.6 yards over his last 5 games and 58.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Travis Kelce’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−3.6 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Travis Kelce’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of KC vs NYJ

Opponent: NYJ
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NYJ allowed the 14th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 55.8 yards/game · 14th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Travis Kelce

Receiving Yards · line 45.5.

1 book has a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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