Confidence pool
Draft saved on this device · not submitted
What a draft means
Your picks and confidence order stay in this browser. Recording an entry on our server is not built yet, so nothing is submitted, graded or shown to anyone else. Each game locks at its kickoff in this draft only; no server enforces that lock yet.
Each mode keeps its own picks and order; switching never moves a pick across.
Your entry · Pick the winner
0 of 14 picked · 0 of 105 points assigned · 1 kicked off without a pick (scores 0)
Not changed yet
Confidence points are your allocation: 14 for the pick you are surest of, down to 1. Drag a game by its handle, or use ▲ for more points and ▼ for fewer (the handle also takes the arrow keys; Escape cancels a drag). A game that has kicked off keeps its pick and its points; the games around it swap past it. A game that kicks off before you pick it still holds its place and scores 0; its points do not move to another game.
- 14your ptsStatIQ JAX · 557% market
- 13your ptsStatIQ BAL · 766% market
- 12your ptsStatIQ CAR · 663% market
- 11your ptsStatIQ CHI · 251% market
- 10your ptsStatIQ NO · 151% market
- 9your ptsStatIQ NE · 1076% market
- 8your ptsStatIQ PIT · 457% market
- 7your ptsStatIQ IND · 975% market
- 6your ptsStatIQ LA · 1388% market
- 5your ptsStatIQ BUF · 869% market
- 4your ptsStatIQ KC · 1280% market
- 3your ptsStatIQ GB · 352% market
- 2your ptsStatIQ SF · 1179% market
- 1your ptsStatIQ: not recorded
Last week (Week 5): no StatIQ entry was recorded, so there is no score to show. A score appears here only once a dated entry is stored before kickoff and graded.
How scoring works · winner and against the spread
- Points. In the winner mode, pick the winner of every game, no spread. With N games, give each pick a different number from N down to 1. A correct pick scores its number; a wrong pick scores 0.
- Ties and postponements. A tied game scores 0 and leaves the points you could have won. A game not played in its scheduled week is void and scores 0.
- Lock times. Each game locks at its own kickoff. Picks on games that have not started can still change, and their order can still be rearranged around the locked ones.
- A game that kicks off before you pick it. It keeps its place in your order and the confidence points of that place, and it scores 0. Its points are not handed to another game and your other games are not renumbered, so a perfect week is then out of reach by exactly those points. The same applies in both modes. If you open the week after a game has kicked off, that game starts at the bottom of a new entry (the fewest points), below every game you can still pick, which start in kickoff order. An entry you have already started is never reordered for you.
- Tiebreaker. StatIQ has no tiebreaker of its own. Use your pool’s; the common one is the total points in the Monday night game.
- Against the spread. Pick a side at its posted spread instead of a winner. Your side covers when its score plus the spread beats the other side’s score, and a cover scores the confidence points you gave it. A whole-number spread can land exactly: that is a push and no points are awarded. A half-point spread cannot push. A postponed game is void and scores nothing. The spread is the line ESPN shows from the provider it names, with the time we read it; your pick keeps the line you picked at even if it moves.
- Confidence points are yours. They are the order you choose, in either mode. They are not a probability, and in the spread mode they are not a chance to cover: StatIQ has no against-the-spread estimate.
StatIQ’s winner entry in full · Week 6
This week's StatIQ entry · Week 6
Every favourite, ranked by the market’s win probability with the vig removed: the most likely winner gets 13 points, the least likely gets 1. Computed from the market board published Fri, Oct 16, 6:24 AM ET. This is not a recorded entry: it recomputes each time the board publishes, until recording ships. The probability is the market’s, not a StatIQ model.
The points move during the week. The board only prices games that have not kicked off, so once a game starts it drops out and this live entry re-spreads the points over the games still priced. A game that has kicked off keeps no StatIQ points here: it is listed as “Locked, points not recorded”. Your own entry in a real pool keeps the points you gave each game at its lock.
| Points | Pick | Game | Win prob (no vig) | Kickoff | Lock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Los Angeles Ramsvs ARI | ARI at LA | 88.0% | Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefsvs LAC | LAC at KC | 80.0% | Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 11 | San Francisco 49ersvs WAS | WAS at SF | 79.1% | Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 10 | New England Patriotsvs NYJ | NYJ at NE | 76.0% | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 9 | Indianapolis Coltsvs TEN | TEN at IND | 74.9% | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 8 | Buffalo Billsat LV | BUF at LV | 68.8% | Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravensat CLE | BAL at CLE | 66.0% | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 6 | Carolina Panthersat PHI | CAR at PHI | 63.3% | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguarsvs HOU | HOU at JAX | 57.0% | Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelersat TB | PIT at TB | 56.9% | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 3 | Green Bay Packersvs DAL | DAL at GB | 52.3% | Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 2 | Chicago Bearsat ATL | CHI at ATL | 51.4% | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| 1 | New Orleans Saintsat NYG | NO at NYG | 51.0% | Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | Open until kickoff |
| – | – | SEA at DEN | – | Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Locked, points not recorded |
A perfect week scores 91 over the 13 priced games of 14 · 13 of 14 games still open.
Explore strategies
Simulators for trying the levers (field size, payout, leverage) in a winner pool. They are not your entry and not a StatIQ entry, they do not model the spread, and nothing here is saved.
This week in the simulator
Your pool
A correct pick scores the number you put on it: your top pick is worth 13, your last is worth 1. Highest total that week wins the pool.
Differentiation
An entry identical to someone else’s ties them every week. These are the two ways to differ, and they carry very different risk.
Move games up and down without changing who you pick.
Take the underdog. One flip can swing as much as many rank moves.
A suggestion, not an optimum. The crossover from "maximise expected points" to "maximise variance" is not something we can state. It depends on your slate, your payout and how alike your pool is. Move the sliders and watch the win/tie split.
Use my pool’s pick percentages
Your pool host usually shows its pick distribution once picks lock. Paste it and the modelled field is switched off for those games.
0 game(s) matched.
This entry
Win and finish chances are simulated: 1,500 simulated weeks against 11 sampled opponents. The opponents come from a model of how pools behave (see the assumptions), not from observed picks.
This is the price-order entry. Against anyone who submits the same thing your score is identical every week: a tie decided by your pool’s tiebreak. Move a lever to change that.
The slate
Win probabilities are the bookmaker moneyline with the vig removed . That is the market’s number, not ours.
| Points | Pick | Game | Win prob (no vig) | Books | Field estimate | vs price order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | LA | ARI @ LA | 88.0% | 21 | 95% modelled | – |
| 12 | KC | LAC @ KC | 80.0% | 21 | 90% modelled | – |
| 11 | SF | WAS @ SFprimetime | 79.1% | 21 | 91% modelled | – |
| 10 | NE | NYJ @ NE | 76.0% | 21 | 87% modelled | – |
| 9 | IND | TEN @ IND | 74.9% | 21 | 86% modelled | – |
| 8 | BUF | BUF @ LV | 68.8% | 21 | 67% modelled | – |
| 7 | BAL | BAL @ CLE | 66.0% | 21 | 64% modelled | – |
| 6 | CAR | CAR @ PHI | 63.3% | 21 | 60% modelled | – |
| 5 | JAX | HOU @ JAX | 57.0% | 21 | 67% modelled | – |
| 4 | PIT | PIT @ TB | 56.9% | 20 | 51% modelled | – |
| 3 | GB | DAL @ GBprimetime | 52.3% | 21 | 66% modelled | – |
| 2 | CHI | CHI @ ATL | 51.4% | 17 | 43% modelled | – |
| 1 | NO | NO @ NYG | 51.0% | 16 | 43% modelled | – |
1 game(s) are missing from this slate because we would not price them: SEA at DEN: locked, points not recorded: the board drops a game at kickoff and StatIQ has no stored entry to keep its rank. A confidence pool ranks every game in the week, so fill those in yourself.
Saving and grading a current-week entry is not live yet, so nothing on this page is stored. To compare after the games, write down your picks and points before the first kickoff, then add up the points on the picks that won once the week is final. A tie or a postponed game scores 0 for everyone.
Assumptions and how the numbers are made
The win probability
De-vigged consensus of the bookmaker moneyline market: each book's own two-way price is de-vigged with the power method, then we take the median across the books that priced both sides. This is the market's number with the vig removed. It is not a StatIQ model, and we are not claiming to beat the market.
We tested a winner model against 2,680 real closing prices and the market won every year, so we use the market’s number. This tool ranks the slate, helps you differ from the rest of your pool on purpose, and keeps the score. Dataset: NFL moneylines, consensus of 21 books · priced before each kickoff · games Oct 18 – Oct 19, 2026. How we measure.
The two levers
Against another entry, a rank move swings as (r − s)²: two slots apart on one game is worth 4. A side flip swings as (r + s)²: on a game you both rank 8 that is 256 against 4: 64 times the variance from one decision. That is why they are separate controls.
The field estimate
It is a model, and nobody has checked it against real picks, including us. Large pool hosts publish pick percentages inside their own products and we could not confirm we may reuse them, so we hold no observed data. The model is a behavioural prior: crowds take favourites more often than the price says, over-back home teams, under-back road favourites and pile onto the nationally televised game. The directions are well documented; the sizes are our assumption. Rows marked “modelled” use it.
What a moneyline parlay costs
The book’s margin compounds on every leg. At a standard −110/−110 market:
| Legs | Expected return |
|---|---|
| 1 | -4.55% |
| 2 | -8.88% |
| 3 | -13.03% |
| 4 | -16.98% |
| 5 | -20.75% |
Arithmetic, not a prediction. Real moneyline parlays are worse: lopsided games carry more margin than −110, and same-game correlation is re-priced by the book. A pool costs nothing to enter.
Historical simulator · 2024 Week 12 slate
Your pool
A correct pick scores the number you put on it: your top pick is worth 13, your last is worth 1. Highest total that week wins the pool. This week has already been played: change the inputs and see how the ranking would have done.
Differentiation
An entry identical to someone else’s ties them every week. These are the two ways to differ, and they carry very different risk.
Move games up and down without changing who you pick.
Take the underdog. One flip can swing as much as many rank moves.
A suggestion, not an optimum. The crossover from "maximise expected points" to "maximise variance" is not something we can state. It depends on your slate, your payout and how alike your pool is. Move the sliders and watch the win/tie split.
Use my pool’s pick percentages
Your pool host usually shows its pick distribution once picks lock. Paste it and the modelled field is switched off for those games.
0 game(s) matched.
This entry
Win and finish chances are simulated: 1,500 simulated weeks against 11 sampled opponents. The opponents come from a model of how pools behave (see the assumptions), not from observed picks.
This is the price-order entry. Against anyone who submits the same thing your score is identical every week: a tie decided by your pool’s tiebreak. Move a lever to change that.
How this ranking scored in 2024 Week 12
The slate
Win probabilities are the bookmaker moneyline with the vig removed . That is the market’s number, not ours.
| Points | Pick | Game | Win prob (no vig) | Books | Field estimate | vs price order | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | KC | KC @ CAR | 85.3% | 9 | 88% modelled | – | + Won 13 |
| 12 | WAS | DAL @ WAS | 84.2% | 9 | 93% modelled | – | − Lost 0 |
| 11 | HOU | TEN @ HOU | 78.4% | 9 | 89% modelled | – | − Lost 0 |
| 10 | MIA | NE @ MIA | 77.4% | 9 | 88% modelled | – | + Won 10 |
| 9 | DET | DET @ IND | 76.8% | 9 | 78% modelled | – | + Won 9 |
| 8 | GB | SF @ GB | 72.5% | 10 | 84% modelled | – | + Won 8 |
| 7 | TB | TB @ NYG | 71.3% | 9 | 71% modelled | – | + Won 7 |
| 6 | DEN | DEN @ LV | 70.1% | 10 | 69% modelled | – | + Won 6 |
| 5 | PIT | PIT @ CLEprimetime | 64.8% | 9 | 67% modelled | – | − Lost 0 |
| 4 | MIN | MIN @ CHI | 61.3% | 9 | 57% modelled | – | + Won 4 |
| 3 | BAL | BAL @ LACprimetime | 59.9% | 10 | 60% modelled | – | + Won 3 |
| 2 | PHI | PHI @ LAprimetime | 59.3% | 10 | 59% modelled | – | + Won 2 |
| 1 | ARI | ARI @ SEA | 52.1% | 10 | 44% modelled | – | − Lost 0 |
This is a past week, so there is nothing to log. The simulator is for trying the levers.
Assumptions and how the numbers are made
The win probability
De-vigged consensus of the bookmaker moneyline market: each book's own two-way price is de-vigged with the power method, then we take the median across the books that priced both sides. This is the market's number with the vig removed. It is not a StatIQ model, and we are not claiming to beat the market.
We tested a winner model against 2,680 real closing prices and the market won every year, so we use the market’s number. This tool ranks the slate, helps you differ from the rest of your pool on purpose, and keeps the score. Dataset: NFL moneylines, consensus of 9 books · priced about an hour before each kickoff · games Nov 21 – Nov 25, 2024. How we measure.
The two levers
Against another entry, a rank move swings as (r − s)²: two slots apart on one game is worth 4. A side flip swings as (r + s)²: on a game you both rank 8 that is 256 against 4: 64 times the variance from one decision. That is why they are separate controls.
The field estimate
It is a model, and nobody has checked it against real picks, including us. Large pool hosts publish pick percentages inside their own products and we could not confirm we may reuse them, so we hold no observed data. The model is a behavioural prior: crowds take favourites more often than the price says, over-back home teams, under-back road favourites and pile onto the nationally televised game. The directions are well documented; the sizes are our assumption. Rows marked “modelled” use it.
What a moneyline parlay costs
The book’s margin compounds on every leg. At a standard −110/−110 market:
| Legs | Expected return |
|---|---|
| 1 | -4.55% |
| 2 | -8.88% |
| 3 | -13.03% |
| 4 | -16.98% |
| 5 | -20.75% |
Arithmetic, not a prediction. Real moneyline parlays are worse: lopsided games carry more margin than −110, and same-game correlation is re-priced by the book. A pool costs nothing to enter.