Tyler Warren receiving yards projection vs the line
IND · TE · #84
Next game vs DAL · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 4 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 41.7 | 42.5 | −0.8 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 46.1 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 5.0 | 5.5 | −0.5 |
Recent receiving yards
34.9Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 42.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at JAX | 18 | 18 | 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026at PIT | 83 | 84 | 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs WSH | 41 | 41 | 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs HOU | 55 | 57 | 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026at KC | 21 | 24 | 6 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs BAL | 13 | 13 | 3 |
| Jan 4, 2026at HOU | 26 | 26 | 5 |
| Dec 28, 2025vs JAX | 43 | 43 | 5 |
| Dec 22, 2025vs SF | 30 | 30 | 3 |
| Dec 14, 2025at SEA | 19 | 19 | 3 |
| Average · last 10 games | 34.9 | 35.5 | 5 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Tyler Warren has averaged 43.6 yards over his last 5 games and 38.5 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Tyler Warren’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−0.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Tyler Warren’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- DAL
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- DAL allowed the 17th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 51.7 yards/game · 17th of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 42.5.
4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Tyler Warren, answered here:
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