Josh Downs receiving yards projection vs the line

IND · WR · #2

Next game vs DAL · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

42.5StatIQ projection · receiving yards

35.5Line · consensus

+7.0Gap

Compare

Save this research

Free account. You come back to this page.

Follows are saved on this device.

Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	42.5	35.5	+7.0
Rush + Rec Yards	42.2	No line yet	–
Receptions	3.8	3.5	+0.3

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

42.5Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 35.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at JAX	23	23	4
Oct 25, 2026at MIN	18	18	2
Oct 18, 2026vs TEN	40	47	4
Oct 11, 2026at PIT	47	47	3
Oct 4, 2026vs WSH	16	16	3
Sep 27, 2026vs HOU	77	77	5
Sep 20, 2026at KC	72	72	7
Sep 13, 2026vs BAL	37	37	2
Jan 4, 2026at HOU	61	56	4
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX	34	34	2
Average · last 10 games	42.5	42.7	3.6

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Josh Downs’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Josh Downs has averaged 28.8 yards over his last 5 games and 41.3 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Josh Downs’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+7.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Josh Downs’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs IND

Opponent: DAL
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: DAL allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 171 yards/game · 1st of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Josh Downs

Receiving Yards · line 35.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −125.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

Ask Explorer about Josh Downs

Questions to ask Explorer about Josh Downs, answered here:

Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.

Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.

Create a free account