Jonathan Taylor rushing yards projection vs the line

IND · RB · #28

Next game vs DAL · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

80.6StatIQ projection · rushing yards

61.5Line · consensus

+19.1Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	80.6	61.5	+19.1
Receiving Yards	21.2	18.5	+2.7
Rush + Rec Yards	103.0	85.5	+17.5
Receptions	2.7	2.5	+0.2

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

70.6Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 61.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at JAX	23	24	47	4
Oct 25, 2026at MIN	95	15	110	2
Oct 18, 2026vs TEN	94	57	151	2
Oct 11, 2026at PIT	45	37	82	3
Oct 4, 2026vs WSH	95	2	97	1
Sep 27, 2026vs HOU	68	4	72	2
Sep 20, 2026at KC	92	40	132	4
Sep 13, 2026vs BAL	98	23	121	3
Jan 4, 2026at HOU	26	13	39	2
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX	70	14	84	3
Average · last 10 games	70.6	22.9	93.5	2.6

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Jonathan Taylor’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jonathan Taylor has averaged 70.4 yards over his last 5 games and 76.3 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+19.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jonathan Taylor’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs IND

Opponent: DAL
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: DAL allowed the 18th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 95.2 yards/game · 18th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Jonathan Taylor

Rushing Yards · line 61.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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