Keenan Allen receiving yards projection vs the line
IND · WR · #10
Next game vs DAL · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 3 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 52.5 | 49.5 | +3.0 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 51.7 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 4.8 | 4.5 | +0.3 |
Recent receiving yards
42.2Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 49.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at JAX | 67 | 67 | 7 |
| Oct 25, 2026at MIN | 31 | 31 | 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs TEN | 82 | 82 | 8 |
| Oct 11, 2026at PIT | 45 | 45 | 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs HOU | 63 | 63 | 6 |
| Sep 20, 2026at KC | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs BAL | 32 | 32 | 6 |
| Jan 4, 2026at DEN | 36 | 36 | 7 |
| Dec 27, 2025vs HOU | 17 | 17 | 1 |
| Dec 21, 2025at DAL | 44 | 44 | 5 |
| Average · last 10 games | 42.2 | 42.2 | 4.9 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Keenan Allen has averaged 57.6 yards over his last 5 games, 46.4 yards per game this season (2026), and 44 yards across 1 game against DAL; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Keenan Allen’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+3.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Keenan Allen’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- DAL
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- DAL allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 171 yards/game · 1st of 32
- Against DAL
- 44 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 49.5.
3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −125.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Keenan Allen, answered here:
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