Josh Jacobs rush + rec yards projection vs the line
GB · RB · #8
Next game at NE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 28.9 yards · NFL rush + rec yards model · 139 graded projections · Updated Nov 5
Compare prices · 3 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush + Rec Yards | 67.1 | 71.5 | −4.4 |
| Rushing Yards | 40.0 | 45.5 | −5.5 |
| Receiving Yards | 16.7 | 21.5 | −4.8 |
| Receptions | 2.7 | 3.5 | −0.8 |
Recent rush + rec yards
71.6Average rush + rec yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 71.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 29 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | RUSH+REC | RUSH YDS | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026vs CAR | 52 | 39 | 13 | 6 |
| Oct 25, 2026at DET | 91 | 36 | 55 | 5 |
| Dec 27, 2025vs BAL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Dec 20, 2025at CHI | 48 | 36 | 12 | 2 |
| Dec 14, 2025at DEN | 92 | 73 | 19 | 2 |
| Dec 7, 2025vs CHI | 92 | 86 | 6 | 2 |
| Nov 27, 2025at DET | 91 | 83 | 8 | 1 |
| Nov 16, 2025at NYG | 40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2025vs PHI | 107 | 74 | 33 | 5 |
| Nov 2, 2025vs CAR | 100 | 87 | 13 | 4 |
| Average · last 10 games | 71.6 | 55.7 | 15.9 | 2.8 |
Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL rush + rec yards model · 139 graded projections
28.9 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Josh Jacobs has averaged 57.2 yards over his last 5 games and 71.5 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Josh Jacobs’s rush + rec yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−4.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our rush + rec yards projection and the actual result, over 139 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Josh Jacobs’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- NE
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- NE allowed the 29th-most scrimmage yards to RBs in 2025 107 yards/game · 29th of 32
Compare prices
Rush + Rec Yards · line 71.5.
3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 5, 6:45 PM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Josh Jacobs, answered here:
Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.
Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.