Matthew Golden receiving yards projection vs the line

GB · WR · #0

Next game at NE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

62.6StatIQ projection · receiving yards

67.5Line · consensus

−4.9Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	62.6	67.5	−4.9
Rush + Rec Yards	62.0	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.5	5.5	−1.1

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

63.9Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 67.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 27

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

100

Sep 24

Oct 4

123

Oct 11

104

Oct 18

Oct 25

Oct 29

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 29 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Oct 29, 2026vs CAR	79	79	7
Oct 25, 2026at DET	39	39	6
Oct 18, 2026vs DAL	104	104	6
Oct 11, 2026vs CHI	123	123	6
Oct 4, 2026at TB	21	27	3
Sep 24, 2026vs ATL	100	100	5
Sep 20, 2026at NYJ	58	58	4
Sep 13, 2026at MIN	95	95	6
Jan 4, 2026at MIN	8	8	1
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL	12	12	1
Average · last 10 games	63.9	64.5	4.5

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Matthew Golden’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Matthew Golden has averaged 73.2 yards over his last 5 games and 77.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Matthew Golden’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−4.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Matthew Golden’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of GB vs NE

Opponent: NE
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NE allowed the 27th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 118.5 yards/game · 27th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Matthew Golden

Receiving Yards · line 67.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.

Research

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