Jordan Love passing yards projection vs the line

GB · QB · #10

Next game at NE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

207.5StatIQ projection · passing yards

274.5Line · consensus

−67.0Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	207.5	274.5	−67.0
Passing Touchdowns	1.4	1.5	−0.1

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

259.9Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 274.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

276

Dec 14

Dec 20

387

Sep 13

145

Sep 20

312

Sep 24

197

Oct 4

367

Oct 11

276

Oct 18

274

Oct 25

288

Oct 29

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 29 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Oct 29, 2026vs CAR	288	3
Oct 25, 2026at DET	274	2
Oct 18, 2026vs DAL	276	1
Oct 11, 2026vs CHI	367	2
Oct 4, 2026at TB	197	2
Sep 24, 2026vs ATL	312	2
Sep 20, 2026at NYJ	145	2
Sep 13, 2026at MIN	387	2
Dec 20, 2025at CHI	77	0
Dec 14, 2025at DEN	276	1
Average · last 10 games	259.9	1.7

Jordan Love’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jordan Love has averaged 280.4 yards over his last 5 games and 280.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jordan Love’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−67.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jordan Love’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of GB vs NE

Opponent: NE
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NE allowed the 24th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 206.4 yards/game · 24th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Jordan Love

Passing Yards · line 274.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −111.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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