Kaleb Johnson Projections

GB · RB · #26

This week’s game has kicked off. The result lands in the game log

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Projections & lines

Rushing Yards · Week 6

vs DAL · Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET

Played

27.8Projection · rushing yards

9.5Line · consensus

+18.3Gap

Average · last 5 games 22.0

Average miss 23.8 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 51 graded projections · Updated Oct 18

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

13.9Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 9.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

Nov 2

Nov 9

Nov 16

Nov 30

Dec 7

Dec 15

Sep 20

Sep 24

Oct 4

Oct 11

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Average Market lineBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: the last 10 average. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Kaleb Johnson rushing yards by game
Date	Opponent	RUSH YDS
Oct 11	vs CHI	26
Oct 4	@ TB	42
Sep 24	vs ATL	6
Sep 20	@ NYJ	32
Dec 15	vs MIA · 2025	4
Dec 7	@ BAL · 2025	4
Nov 30	vs BUF · 2025	3
Nov 16	vs CIN · 2025	15
Nov 9	@ LAC · 2025	3
Nov 2	vs IND · 2025	4

Kaleb Johnson’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

Opponent: DAL
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: DAL allowed the 18th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 95.2 yards/game · 18th of 32

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Rushing Yards · Kaleb Johnson

Rushing Yards · line 9.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
DraftKingsOct 18, 8:14 PM ET	−113Best	−111Best
FanDuelOct 18, 8:15 PM ET	−113Best	−113
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 18, 8:15 PM ET	−125	−115

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Pre-game prices as of Oct 18, 8:15 PM ET. The game has started, so these are not live.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Kaleb Johnson

Questions to ask Explorer about Kaleb Johnson, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL rushing-yard model · 51 graded projections

23.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

30 of 51 within 25 yards

30 of 51 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projected Kaleb Johnson for 27.8 rushing yards against DAL in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Kaleb Johnson has averaged 22 yards over his last 5 games and 26.5 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages. The game has been played, so the result is already in the game log above.

The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Oct 11, 2026): 21.2 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Kaleb Johnson’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line. A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 51 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Kaleb Johnson’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's rushing yards projection for Kaleb Johnson vs DAL?

StatIQ projected Kaleb Johnson for 27.8 yards rushing yards against DAL in Week 6. That game has already been played, so the game log on the page shows the actual result. The projection is a single number, not a range or a guaranteed outcome.

How has Kaleb Johnson performed in rushing yards recently?

Kaleb Johnson has averaged 22 yards over his last 5 games and 26.5 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many rushing yards did Kaleb Johnson have in his last game?

Kaleb Johnson had 26 yards rushing yards in his most recent game vs CHI. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's rushing yards projections?

Across 51 completed rushing yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 23.8 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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