Christian Watson receiving yards projection vs the line

GB · WR · #9

Next game at NE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET

67.9StatIQ projection · receiving yards

72.5Line · consensus

−4.6Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 6 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	67.9	72.5	−4.6
Rush + Rec Yards	65.6	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.4	4.5	−0.1

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

83.8Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 72.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 20

113

Dec 27

147

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 24

Oct 4

143

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

113

Oct 29

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 29 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Oct 29, 2026vs CAR	113	113	8
Oct 25, 2026at DET	57	57	5
Oct 18, 2026vs DAL	64	64	3
Oct 11, 2026vs CHI	143	143	6
Oct 4, 2026at TB	47	47	3
Sep 24, 2026vs ATL	96	96	7
Sep 20, 2026at NYJ	41	41	4
Sep 13, 2026at MIN	147	147	6
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL	113	113	5
Dec 20, 2025at CHI	17	17	2
Average · last 10 games	83.8	83.8	4.9

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Christian Watson’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Christian Watson has averaged 84.8 yards over his last 5 games and 88.5 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Christian Watson’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−4.6 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Christian Watson’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of GB vs NE

Opponent: NE
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NE allowed the 27th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 118.5 yards/game · 27th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Christian Watson

Receiving Yards · line 72.5.

6 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.

Research

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