Jordan Watkins receiving yards projection vs the line

SF · WR · #17

Next game vs LV · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

27.9StatIQ projection · receiving yards

20.5Line · consensus

+7.4Gap

Compare

Save this research

Free account. You come back to this page.

Follows are saved on this device.

Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 21.7 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 479 graded projections · Updated Nov 5

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	27.9	20.5	+7.4
Receptions	1.7	1.5	+0.2

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

18.2Average receiving yards, last 9 (9 games)Over 20.5 in 3 of 9 · past results, not odds

Oct 26

Nov 2

Nov 9

Dec 22

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 19

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 9 games
Game	REC YDS	REC
Oct 25, 2026at ATL	56	3
Oct 19, 2026vs WSH	22	1
Oct 11, 2026at SEA	0	0
Oct 4, 2026vs DEN	0	0
Sep 27, 2026vs ARI	60	2
Dec 22, 2025at IND	0	0
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR	0	0
Nov 2, 2025at NYG	19	1
Oct 26, 2025at HOU	7	1
Average · last 9 games	18.2	0.9

Stats and game log: receptions

Jordan Watkins’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 479 graded projections

21.7 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 479 within 25 yards

326 of 479 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jordan Watkins has averaged 27.6 yards over his last 5 games and 27.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Oct 25, 2026): 32.8 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jordan Watkins’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+7.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 479 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jordan Watkins’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of LV vs SF

Opponent: LV
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: LV allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 147.2 yards/game · 11th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Jordan Watkins

Receiving Yards · line 20.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −116 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 5, 6:50 PM ET.

Research

Ask Explorer about Jordan Watkins

Questions to ask Explorer about Jordan Watkins, answered here:

Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.

Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.

Create a free account