Christian McCaffrey rushing yards projection vs the line

SF · RB · #23

Next game vs LV · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

71.6StatIQ projection · rushing yards

61.5Line · consensus

+10.1Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	71.6	61.5	+10.1
Receiving Yards	40.5	38.5	+2.0
Rush + Rec Yards	103.2	106.5	−3.3
Receptions	5.5	5.5	0.0

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

66.9Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 61.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

117

Dec 22

140

Dec 28

Jan 3

Sep 10

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 19

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Oct 25, 2026at ATL	39	61	100	6
Oct 19, 2026vs WSH	64	53	117	9
Oct 11, 2026at SEA	68	15	83	3
Oct 4, 2026vs DEN	52	18	70	3
Sep 27, 2026vs ARI	75	41	116	4
Sep 20, 2026vs MIA	23	43	66	4
Sep 10, 2026vs LAR	68	20	88	5
Jan 3, 2026vs SEA	23	34	57	6
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI	140	41	181	4
Dec 22, 2025at IND	117	29	146	6
Average · last 10 games	66.9	35.5	102.4	5

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Christian McCaffrey’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Christian McCaffrey has averaged 59.6 yards over his last 5 games and 55.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+10.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Christian McCaffrey’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of LV vs SF

Opponent: LV
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: LV allowed the 14th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 97.7 yards/game · 14th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Christian McCaffrey

Rushing Yards · line 61.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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