Kaelon Black rushing yards projection vs the line
SF · RB · #26
Next game vs LV · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 4 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 43.4 | 36.5 | +6.9 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 43.5 | No line yet | – |
Recent rushing yards
33.3Average rushing yards, last 7 (7 games)Over 36.5 in 2 of 7 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | RUSH YDS | RUSH+REC |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026at ATL | 63 | 59 |
| Oct 19, 2026vs WSH | 34 | 37 |
| Oct 11, 2026at SEA | 16 | 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs DEN | 13 | 13 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs ARI | 17 | 17 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs MIA | 25 | 25 |
| Sep 10, 2026vs LAR | 65 | 70 |
| Average · last 7 games | 33.3 | 33.9 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections
26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
90 of 157 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Kaelon Black has averaged 28.6 yards over his last 5 games and 33.3 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Kaelon Black’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+6.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Kaelon Black’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- LV
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- LV allowed the 14th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 97.7 yards/game · 14th of 32
Compare prices
Rushing Yards · line 36.5.
4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −114.
Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Kaelon Black, answered here:
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