George Kittle receiving yards projection vs the line
SF · TE · #85
Next game vs LV · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6
Compare prices · 2 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 62.9 | 68.5 | −5.6 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 61.0 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 5.2 | 5.5 | −0.3 |
Recent receiving yards
65.7Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 68.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | REC YDS | RUSH+REC | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026at ATL | 88 | 88 | 8 |
| Oct 19, 2026vs WSH | 69 | 69 | 5 |
| Oct 11, 2026at SEA | 24 | 24 | 5 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs DEN | 70 | 70 | 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs ARI | 82 | 82 | 6 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs MIA | 80 | 80 | 4 |
| Sep 10, 2026vs LAR | 12 | 12 | 2 |
| Jan 3, 2026vs SEA | 29 | 29 | 5 |
| Dec 22, 2025at IND | 115 | 115 | 7 |
| Dec 14, 2025vs TEN | 88 | 88 | 8 |
| Average · last 10 games | 65.7 | 65.7 | 5.4 |
RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections
21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
326 of 481 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, George Kittle has averaged 66.6 yards over his last 5 games and 60.7 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for George Kittle’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−5.6 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- George Kittle’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- LV
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- LV allowed the 30th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 38.6 yards/game · 30th of 32
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 68.5.
2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about George Kittle, answered here:
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