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Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 24.2 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 2.2 | No line yet | – |
Recent receiving yards
16.2Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)
Current through Nov 1
| Game | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at NYJ | 38 | 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026vs LAR | 14 | 2 |
| Oct 18, 2026vs BUF | 9 | 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026vs KC | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 27, 2026at NO | 16 | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026at LAC | 9 | 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026vs MIA | 27 | 3 |
| Jan 4, 2026vs GB | 49 | 3 |
| Dec 25, 2025vs DET | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 21, 2025at NYG | 0 | 0 |
| Average · last 10 games | 16.2 | 1.5 |
REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, Jalen Nailor has averaged 15.4 yards over his last 5 games and 16.1 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Nov 1, 2026): 17.2 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Jalen Nailor’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- Jalen Nailor’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- SF
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- SF allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 146.6 yards/game · 12th of 32
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Jalen Nailor, answered here:
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