Ashton Jeanty rushing yards projection vs the line

LV · RB · #2

Next game at SF · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET

34.8StatIQ projection · rushing yards

28.5Line · consensus

+6.3Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	34.8	28.5	+6.3
Receiving Yards	37.7	36.5	+1.2
Rush + Rec Yards	75.8	68.5	+7.3
Receptions	4.3	4.5	−0.2

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

48.4Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 28.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 4

102

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at NYJ	9	64	73	3
Oct 25, 2026vs LAR	15	61	76	8
Oct 18, 2026vs BUF	22	36	58	4
Oct 11, 2026at NE	27	50	77	3
Oct 4, 2026vs KC	58	68	126	6
Sep 27, 2026at NO	56	37	93	3
Sep 20, 2026at LAC	48	15	63	4
Sep 13, 2026vs MIA	102	45	147	6
Jan 4, 2026vs KC	87	7	94	3
Dec 28, 2025vs NYG	60	13	73	2
Average · last 10 games	48.4	39.6	88	4.2

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Ashton Jeanty’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Ashton Jeanty has averaged 26.2 yards over his last 5 games and 42.1 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Ashton Jeanty’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+6.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Ashton Jeanty’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of LV vs SF

Opponent: SF
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: SF allowed the 19th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 93.1 yards/game · 19th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Ashton Jeanty

Rushing Yards · line 28.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −120 · Under −110.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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