Michael Penix Jr. passing yards projection vs the line

ATL · QB · #9

Next game Opponent: CIN · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

225.9StatIQ projection · passing yards

219.5Line · consensus

+6.4Gap

Compare

Save this research

Free account. You come back to this page.

Follows are saved on this device.

Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 57.8 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Passing Yards	225.9	219.5	+6.4
Passing Touchdowns	1.5	1.5	0.0

Recent passing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

209.6Average passing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 219.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

241

Oct 19

221

Nov 2

177

Nov 9

175

Nov 16

256

Sep 24

223

Oct 5

240

Oct 11

225

Oct 18

213

Oct 25

125

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±57.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	PASS YDS	PASS TD
Nov 1, 2026at TB	125	0
Oct 25, 2026vs SF	213	3
Oct 18, 2026vs CHI	225	3
Oct 11, 2026vs BAL	240	1
Oct 5, 2026at NO	223	1
Sep 24, 2026at GB	256	1
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR	175	0
Nov 9, 2025vs IND	177	1
Nov 2, 2025at NE	221	3
Oct 19, 2025at SF	241	1
Average · last 10 games	209.6	1.4

Michael Penix Jr.’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections

57.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

41 of 92 within 45 yards

41 of 92 landed within 45 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 205.2 yards over his last 5 games and 213.7 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Michael Penix Jr.’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+6.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Michael Penix Jr.’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: CIN · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CIN allowed the 8th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 245.1 yards/game · 8th of 32

Compare prices

Passing Yards · Michael Penix Jr.

Passing Yards · line 219.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

Ask Explorer about Michael Penix Jr.

Questions to ask Explorer about Michael Penix Jr., answered here:

Your 7-day Founders trial starts as soon as your account is confirmed. No card.

Every tool, every sport, and every pre-tip pick we post when qualifying opportunities exist. Nothing is charged when it ends. Your account goes back to the free tier.

Create a free account