Jahan Dotson receiving yards projection vs the line

ATL · WR · #4

Next game Opponent: CIN · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

38.8StatIQ projection · receiving yards

26.5Line · consensus

+12.3Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	38.8	26.5	+12.3
Receptions	2.2	1.5	+0.7

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

37.7Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 26.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 24

Oct 5

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	REC
Nov 1, 2026at TB	95	2
Oct 25, 2026vs SF	6	1
Oct 18, 2026vs CHI	87	3
Oct 11, 2026vs BAL	54	2
Oct 5, 2026at NO	54	2
Sep 24, 2026at GB	11	1
Sep 20, 2026vs CAR	11	2
Sep 13, 2026at PIT	19	1
Jan 4, 2026vs WSH	40	3
Dec 28, 2025at BUF	0	0
Average · last 10 games	37.7	1.7

Stats and game log: receptions

Jahan Dotson’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Jahan Dotson has averaged 59.2 yards over his last 5 games and 42.1 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Jahan Dotson’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+12.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Jahan Dotson’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: CIN · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CIN allowed the 30th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 115.2 yards/game · 30th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Jahan Dotson

Receiving Yards · line 26.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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