Kyle Pitts receiving yards projection vs the line

ATL · TE · #8

Next game Opponent: CIN · neutral site · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET

37.5StatIQ projection · receiving yards

42.5Line · consensus

−5.0Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	37.5	42.5	−5.0
Rush + Rec Yards	35.8	No line yet	–
Receptions	3.5	3.5	0.0

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

27.1Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 42.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 29

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 24

Oct 5

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026at TB	6	6	2
Oct 25, 2026vs SF	22	22	5
Oct 18, 2026vs CHI	60	60	5
Oct 11, 2026vs BAL	42	42	5
Oct 5, 2026at NO	47	47	3
Sep 24, 2026at GB	5	5	1
Sep 20, 2026vs CAR	15	15	1
Sep 13, 2026at PIT	0	0	0
Jan 4, 2026vs NO	58	58	6
Dec 29, 2025vs LAR	16	16	2
Average · last 10 games	27.1	27.1	3

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Kyle Pitts’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Kyle Pitts has averaged 35.4 yards over his last 5 games and 24.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−5.0 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Kyle Pitts’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CIN

Opponent: CIN · neutral site
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CIN allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 84.9 yards/game · 1st of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Kyle Pitts

Receiving Yards · line 42.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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