Mason Taylor receiving yards projection vs the line

NYJ · TE · #85

Next game at KC · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

34.7StatIQ projection · receiving yards

26.5Line · consensus

+8.2Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 2 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	34.7	26.5	+8.2
Receptions	3.7	3.5	+0.2

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

25.9Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 26.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

Nov 13

Nov 23

Nov 30

Dec 7

-2

Sep 13

Sep 20

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs LV	19	3
Oct 25, 2026vs MIA	62	5
Oct 18, 2026at NE	33	4
Oct 11, 2026vs CLE	24	3
Sep 20, 2026vs GB	0	0
Sep 13, 2026at TEN	-2	2
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA	51	5
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL	21	2
Nov 23, 2025at BAL	21	3
Nov 13, 2025at NE	30	4
Average · last 10 games	25.9	3.1

Stats and game log: receptions

Mason Taylor’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Mason Taylor has averaged 27.6 yards over his last 5 games and 22.7 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Nov 1, 2026): 27.2 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Mason Taylor’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+8.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Mason Taylor’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of KC vs NYJ

Opponent: KC
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: KC allowed the 22nd-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 47.6 yards/game · 22nd of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Mason Taylor

Receiving Yards · line 26.5.

2 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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