Tim Patrick Projections

NYJ · WR · #17

Next game at NE · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Compare

Follows are saved on this device.

Projections & lines

2 markets

REC YDS REC

Receiving Yards · Week 6

at NE · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only

20.3Projection · receiving yards

14.5Line · consensus

+5.8Gap

Average · last 5 games 8.2

Average miss 22.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections · Updated Oct 17

Compare prices

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	20.3	14.5	+5.8
Receptions	1.8	1.5	+0.3

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

15.0Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 14.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Nov 9

Nov 16

Nov 23

Nov 30

Dec 7

Dec 14

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 4

Oct 11

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±22.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±22.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Tim Patrick receiving yards by game
Date	Opponent	REC YDS
Oct 11	vs CLE	26
Jan 4	vs TEN · 2025	4
Dec 28	@ IND · 2025	0
Dec 21	@ DEN · 2025	11
Dec 14	vs NYJ · 2025	0
Dec 7	vs IND · 2025	78
Nov 30	@ TEN · 2025	11
Nov 23	@ ARI · 2025	0
Nov 16	vs LAC · 2025	20
Nov 9	@ HOU · 2025	0

Tim Patrick’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of NE vs NYJ

Opponent: NE
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: NE allowed the 27th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 118.5 yards/game · 27th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Tim Patrick

Receiving Yards · line 14.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
FanDuelOct 17, 10:10 AM ET	−114Best	−114Best
Hard Rock BetOct 17, 10:10 AM ET	−115	−115
Hardrockbet FlOct 17, 10:11 AM ET	−115	−115

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 17, 10:11 AM ET.

Research

Ask Explorer about Tim Patrick

Questions to ask Explorer about Tim Patrick, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections

22.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 145 within 25 yards

90 of 145 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Tim Patrick for 20.3 receiving yards against NE in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Tim Patrick has averaged 8.2 yards over his last 5 games and 26 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Oct 11, 2026): 23.8 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Tim Patrick’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+5.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 145 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Tim Patrick’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receiving yards projection for Tim Patrick vs NE?

StatIQ projects Tim Patrick for 20.3 yards receiving yards against NE in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Tim Patrick performed in receiving yards recently?

Tim Patrick has averaged 8.2 yards over his last 5 games and 26 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receiving yards did Tim Patrick have in his last game?

Tim Patrick had 26 yards receiving yards in his most recent game vs CLE. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receiving yards projections?

Across 145 completed receiving yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 22.8 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

See the full NFL slate