Braelon Allen rushing yards projection vs the line

NYJ · RB · #0

Next game at KC · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

74.3StatIQ projection · rushing yards

32.5Line · consensus

+41.8Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 4 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	74.3	32.5	+41.8
Receiving Yards	14.9	No line yet	–
Rush + Rec Yards	93.0	No line yet	–
Receptions	2.3	No line yet	–

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

62.1Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 32.5 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Sep 21

Sep 29

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

116

Oct 11

Oct 18

104

Oct 25

147

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs LV	147	6	153	2
Oct 25, 2026vs MIA	104	30	134	6
Oct 18, 2026at NE	78	26	104	2
Oct 11, 2026vs CLE	116	0	116	1
Oct 4, 2026at CHI	59	8	67	2
Sep 27, 2026at DET	14	3	17	3
Sep 20, 2026vs GB	7	8	15	1
Sep 13, 2026at TEN	40	0	40	0
Sep 29, 2025at MIA	26	0	26	0
Sep 21, 2025at TB	30	17	47	2
Average · last 10 games	62.1	9.8	71.9	1.9

REC YDS, RUSH+REC, REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Braelon Allen’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Braelon Allen has averaged 100.8 yards over his last 5 games and 70.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Braelon Allen’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+41.8 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Braelon Allen’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of KC vs NYJ

Opponent: KC
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: KC allowed the 25th-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 83.1 yards/game · 25th of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Braelon Allen

Rushing Yards · line 32.5.

4 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −117 · Under −114.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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