Adonai Mitchell receiving yards projection vs the line

NYJ · WR · #15

Next game at KC · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

54.7StatIQ projection · receiving yards

52.5Line · consensus

+2.2Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	54.7	52.5	+2.2
Rush + Rec Yards	49.6	No line yet	–
Receptions	3.5	3.5	+0.1

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

51.4Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 52.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

102

Nov 30

Dec 7

Dec 14

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Oct 25

142

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs LV	142	142	7
Oct 25, 2026vs MIA	0	0	0
Sep 20, 2026vs GB	63	63	6
Sep 13, 2026at TEN	60	60	3
Jan 4, 2026at BUF	0	0	0
Dec 28, 2025vs NE	22	22	3
Dec 21, 2025at NO	43	43	3
Dec 14, 2025at JAX	58	54	6
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA	24	24	1
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL	102	102	8
Average · last 10 games	51.4	51	3.7

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Adonai Mitchell’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Adonai Mitchell has averaged 53 yards over his last 5 games and 66.3 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Adonai Mitchell’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+2.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Adonai Mitchell’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of KC vs NYJ

Opponent: KC
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: KC allowed the 24th-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 124.6 yards/game · 24th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Adonai Mitchell

Receiving Yards · line 52.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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