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Projections & lines
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted · Updated Thu 5:14 PM ET
Early projection, no line yet; lines usually post midweek. Model v9 · generated Thu, Nov 5, 5:14 PM ET.
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 22.4 | No line yet | – |
| Receptions | 2.5 | No line yet | – |
Recent receiving yards
12.6Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)
Current through Nov 1
| Game | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026vs ARI | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 26, 2026at PHI | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 18, 2026at GB | 13 | 2 |
| Oct 8, 2026vs TB | 19 | 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026at HOU | 11 | 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs BAL | 23 | 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026vs WSH | 43 | 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026at NYG | 6 | 2 |
| Jan 4, 2026at NYG | 5 | 1 |
| Dec 25, 2025at WSH | 6 | 1 |
| Average · last 10 games | 12.6 | 1.9 |
REC: Early projection · no line posted yet
Stats and game log: receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · Players projected before a line posted
Not yet measured for players projected before a line posted. This number was projected before the market posted a line, so it is measured as its own group once those games are graded, never folded into the figures for projections that had a posted line.
How this is calculated
For context, Jake Ferguson has averaged 8.6 yards over his last 5 games and 14.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
The model read its recent form from its own window (model window · last 5 through Nov 1, 2026): 13.2 yards. The chart’s averages are the games shown, so the two can differ.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Actual
- Jake Ferguson’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- IND
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- IND allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 69.8 yards/game · 2nd of 32
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Jake Ferguson, answered here:
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