Javonte Williams rushing yards projection vs the line

DAL · RB · #33

Next game at IND · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

67.3StatIQ projection · rushing yards

71.5Line · consensus

−4.2Gap

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Average miss 26 yards · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rushing Yards	67.3	71.5	−4.2
Receiving Yards	15.0	7.5	+7.5
Rush + Rec Yards	91.0	86.5	+4.5
Receptions	2.3	1.5	+0.8

Recent rushing yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

61.6Average rushing yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 71.5 in 2 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Dec 25

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 8

Oct 18

155

Oct 26

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±26.0 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	RUSH YDS	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs ARI	56	1	57	1
Oct 26, 2026at PHI	155	0	155	0
Oct 18, 2026at GB	41	9	50	2
Oct 8, 2026vs TB	45	17	62	2
Oct 4, 2026at HOU	62	21	83	5
Sep 27, 2026vs BAL	98	5	103	2
Sep 20, 2026vs WSH	30	20	50	3
Sep 13, 2026at NYG	41	31	72	5
Dec 25, 2025at WSH	54	0	54	0
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC	34	9	43	2
Average · last 10 games	61.6	11.3	72.9	2.2

Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions

Javonte Williams’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL rushing-yard model · 157 graded projections

26 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

90 of 157 within 25 yards

90 of 157 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Javonte Williams has averaged 71.8 yards over his last 5 games and 66 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Javonte Williams’s rushing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−4.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rushing yards projection and the actual result, over 157 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Javonte Williams’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs IND

Opponent: IND
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: IND allowed the 23rd-most rushing yards to RBs in 2025 86.8 yards/game · 23rd of 32

Compare prices

Rushing Yards · Javonte Williams

Rushing Yards · line 71.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −120 · Under −120.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

Research

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