CeeDee Lamb receiving yards projection vs the line

DAL · WR · #88

Next game at IND · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

85.8StatIQ projection · receiving yards

81.5Line · consensus

+4.3Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 3 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	85.8	81.5	+4.3
Rush + Rec Yards	87.2	No line yet	–
Receptions	6.7	6.5	+0.2

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

75.9Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 81.5 in 3 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 25

Jan 4

Sep 13

153

Sep 20

112

Sep 27

189

Oct 4

Oct 8

Oct 18

Oct 26

Nov 1

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Nov 1, 2026vs ARI	58	58	7
Oct 26, 2026at PHI	74	74	5
Oct 18, 2026at GB	70	70	9
Oct 8, 2026vs TB	9	9	2
Oct 4, 2026at HOU	189	183	17
Sep 27, 2026vs BAL	112	112	7
Sep 20, 2026vs WSH	153	153	8
Sep 13, 2026at NYG	44	44	5
Jan 4, 2026at NYG	4	4	1
Dec 25, 2025at WSH	46	46	5
Average · last 10 games	75.9	75.3	6.6

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

CeeDee Lamb’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, CeeDee Lamb has averaged 80 yards over his last 5 games and 88.6 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+4.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: CeeDee Lamb’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs IND

Opponent: IND
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: IND allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs in 2025 168.3 yards/game · 3rd of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · CeeDee Lamb

Receiving Yards · line 81.5.

3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −114 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 6, 2:12 AM ET.

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